资金跟踪系列之八：市场热度与波动率均上升，两融活跃度升至“924”高点

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to decline, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed [1][15] - The nominal and real interest rates of 10Y US Treasury bonds both fell, indicating a rebound in inflation expectations [1][15] - Offshore dollar liquidity has tightened, while the domestic interbank funding situation is overall balanced, initially tightening and then loosening [1][15] Market Trading Activity - Market trading activity has continued to rise, with most industry trading heat above the 80th percentile [2][24] - The volatility of major indices has increased, while most industry volatilities remain below the 60th percentile [2][30] - Market liquidity indicators have slightly rebounded, but liquidity indicators across sectors remain below the 60th historical percentile [2][35] Institutional Research - The electronic, communication, computer, automotive, and pharmaceutical sectors have the highest research activity, with retail, non-ferrous metals, steel, electronics, and chemicals showing a month-on-month increase in research heat [3][42] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have adjusted the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, with increases for sectors such as steel, coal, media, and computers [4][49] - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025/2026 has increased [4][49] - The net profit forecasts for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index for 2025/2026 have been raised [4][49] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has rebounded, but there has been overall net selling [5][31] - Based on the top 10 active stocks, the buy-sell ratio for electronic, computer, and non-bank sectors has increased [5][32] - For stocks with northbound holdings of less than 30 million shares, there were significant net purchases in media, non-ferrous metals, and communication sectors [5][33] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has risen to the highest level since September 2024, with net purchases primarily in electronic, computer, and communication sectors [6][35] - The proportion of margin financing in sectors such as home appliances, automotive, and utilities has increased significantly [6][38] - Margin financing has seen net purchases across various styles, including large, mid, and small-cap growth and value stocks [6][39] Hot Stocks on the Dragon and Tiger List - The trading activity on the Dragon and Tiger list has continued to rise, with real estate, media, and computer sectors showing relatively high trading volumes [7][41] Active Equity Fund Positions - Active equity funds have increased their positions, particularly in sectors like military, electric power, and TMT [8][45] - The correlation between active equity funds and large-cap growth/mid-small-cap value has increased [8][48] - New equity fund issuance has rebounded, with active funds seeing a decrease and passive funds seeing an increase in issuance [8][50]