杰克逊霍尔会议快评：鲍威尔转鸽，9月降息在即

Economic Outlook - Powell's speech at Jackson Hole indicates a dovish stance, suggesting a potential interest rate cut in September[3] - Job growth has slowed to an average of only 35,000 per month over the past three months, significantly below the 168,000 per month expected for 2024, indicating weakening labor market resilience[3] - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.2%, reflecting a balance in the labor market but with increasing downside risks to employment[3] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The PCE inflation rate is at 2.6% year-on-year, with core PCE at 2.9%, both higher than last year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[4] - Powell views the impact of tariffs as a temporary shock, suggesting limited long-term inflation effects[4] - The likelihood of a wage-price spiral is low due to a relatively weak labor market, which mitigates concerns about sustained inflation[4] Recession Risks - Recent data shows that the risk of recession in the U.S. has increased, with a 60% probability of recession over the next 12 months according to the New York Fed model[6] - Non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, marking a nine-month low and reflecting a downward trend in job growth since early 2025[8] Policy Implications - Powell's focus on employment risks over inflation concerns opens the door for potential rate cuts, as the need for monetary easing becomes more apparent[5] - The revised Long-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy emphasizes flexibility in monetary policy, moving away from a strict average inflation targeting approach[18] - The Fed's commitment to price stability remains strong, with a notable decrease in tolerance for inflation above the 2% target[20]