华宝期货有色金属周报-20250825

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum: Supported by macro - interest rate cut expectations, it is expected to operate at a high level in the near term. However, the off - season and actual impacts may still put pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [9][10]. - Zinc: In the short term, focus on macro - sentiment. In the medium - to - long - term, supply increase will put pressure on the upside. Zinc prices will operate within a range with increasing upper - bound pressure [12]. - Tin: In the short term, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the downward pressure will increase in the future [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01有色周度行情回顾 - Futures and Spot Prices: - Copper: The futures price of CU2509 on August 22, 2025, was 78,690 yuan, down 370 yuan (- 0.47%) from August 15. The spot price was 78,825 yuan, down 345 yuan (- 0.44%) [7]. - Aluminum: The futures price of AL2510 was 20,630 yuan, down 140 yuan (- 0.67%). The spot price was 20,750 yuan, up 70 yuan (0.34%) [7]. - Zinc: The futures price of ZN2510 was 22,275 yuan, down 230 yuan (- 1.02%). The spot price was 21,930 yuan, down 734 yuan (- 3.24%) [7]. - Tin: The futures price of SN2509 was 265,930 yuan, down 890 yuan (- 0.33%). The spot price remained unchanged at 266,250 yuan [7]. - Nickel: The futures price of NI2510 was 119,610 yuan, down 990 yuan (- 0.82%). The spot price was 120,890 yuan, down 930 yuan (- 0.76%) [7]. 3.2 02本周有色行情预判 - Aluminum: - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated within a range. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and China's policy to boost domestic demand created a positive atmosphere, which is expected to boost aluminum consumption. Supply slightly increased with the commissioning of a small amount of replacement capacity. The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%. Some sub - sectors showed improvement, while the recycled aluminum operating rate declined slightly. As of August 25, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased [9]. - Viewpoint: Supported by macro - interest rate cut expectations, it is expected to operate at a high level in the near term, but the off - season and actual impacts may still put pressure on the upside [9][10]. - Later Attention: Geopolitical crisis development, macro - policy implementation, supply increase, and consumption release [11]. - Zinc: - Logic: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated within a range. The Shanghai - London ratio oscillated around 8.0, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. The galvanizing operating rate decreased by 1.12 percentage points to 57.42%. Zinc ingot inventory increased due to some enterprises' stock - replenishment behavior. As of August 25, domestic zinc inventory increased [12]. - Viewpoint: In the short term, focus on macro - sentiment. In the medium - to - long - term, supply increase will put pressure on the upside. Zinc prices will operate within a range with increasing upper - bound pressure [12]. - Later Attention: Macro - policy implementation, mine production release, and consumption release [12]. - Tin: - Logic: In July, China's tin ore imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Myanmar's resumption of production was slow due to the rainy season, and African imports also declined. Supply shortage supported tin prices. The operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi remained low due to raw material shortages. Downstream demand was average, showing a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term [13]. - Viewpoint: In the short term, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the downward pressure will increase in the future [13]. - Later Attention: Myanmar's resumption of production and countries' trade policies [13]. 3.3 03品种数据 - Aluminum - Bauxite: - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 640 yuan/ton week - on - week; the low - grade was 570 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The average import price was 74.74 dollars/ton, up 0.03 dollars week - on - week [17]. - Arrival and Departure Volume: The arrival volume at ports was 416.77 tons, down 92.85 tons week - on - week; the departure volume was 400.53 tons, down 13.42 tons [21]. - Alumina: - Price and Cost - profit: The domestic price in Henan was 3225 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan week - on - week. The full cost was 2891.7 yuan/ton, up 6.9 yuan. The profit in Shanxi was 269.57 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [24]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: - Cost and Price Difference: The total cost was 16718.55 yuan/ton, down 19.49 yuan week - on - week. The regional price difference (Foshan - SMM A00 aluminum) was - 60 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [26]. - Downstream Processing: The operating rates of aluminum cable, foil, plate - strip, and others showed different changes. For example, the aluminum cable operating rate was 63.6, up 1 percentage point week - on - week [31]. - Inventory: The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai was 81,900 tons, down 2900 tons week - on - week. The social inventory was 616,000 tons, up 9000 tons [37]. - Spot and Basis: The basis of SMM A00 aluminum showed different changes in different periods. For example, the basis of the current month was 60 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan week - on - week [43]. - Month - to - Month Spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract was 20 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan week - on - week [50]. - Zinc - Zinc Concentrate: - Price and Processing Fee: The domestic zinc concentrate price was 16,804 yuan/metal ton, down 200 yuan week - on - week. The domestic processing fee remained unchanged at 3900 yuan/metal ton [55]. - Production Profit, Import Profit - loss, and Inventory: The enterprise production profit was 3804 yuan/metal ton, down 200 yuan week - on - week. The import loss was 876.68 yuan/ton, up 487.84 yuan week - on - week [58]. - Refined Zinc: - Inventory: The SMM seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots was 138,500 tons, up 3100 tons week - on - week [61]. - Galvanizing: - Production, Operating Rate, and Inventory: The production was 332,890 tons, down 14,155 tons week - on - week. The operating rate was 57.42%, down 1.12 percentage points [64]. - Zinc Basis and Month - to - Month Spread: The basis of SMM 0 zinc ingot and the month - to - month spread of Shanghai zinc showed different changes [67][68]. - Tin - Refined Tin: - Production and Operating Rate: The combined production of Yunnan and Jiangxi was 0.289 tons, up 0.002 tons week - on - week. The combined operating rate was 59.64%, up 0.41 percentage points [74]. - Tin Ingot Inventory: The SHFE tin ingot inventory was 7491 tons, down 301 tons week - on - week. The Chinese regional social inventory was 9278 tons, down 802 tons [77]. - Tin Concentrate Processing Fee and Import Profit - loss: The tin concentrate processing fees in different regions remained unchanged week - on - week. The import profit - loss was 10,126.07 yuan/ton, down 3805.14 yuan week - on - week [79][80]. - Spot Average Price: The average prices of 40% and 60% tin concentrates in different regions remained unchanged week - on - week [84].