Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Black Industry Chain [1] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] - Report Provider: Huabao Futures [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Overall Market: The black market is facing a complex situation with various factors influencing different segments. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand dynamics, macro - policies, and the approaching 9.3 parade, which may lead to production restrictions [9][10]. - Steel Products: The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices likely to fluctuate and trend downward in the short term [9]. - Iron Ore: The price of iron ore is expected to be stronger this week, influenced by macro factors. The supply - demand relationship has shifted from tight to balanced, and the price is expected to trade in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The prices of coking coal and coke are likely to experience increased volatility. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations and domestic environmental protection policies are key influencing factors [11]. - Ferroalloys: Ferroalloy prices are expected to follow the black market trend and trade in a range, with supply increasing slightly and demand remaining resilient but not strongly driving prices [12]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Market Review - Futures and Spot Prices: Most futures and spot prices of black products declined last week. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2510 dropped from 3188 to 3119 yuan/ton (-2.16%), and the spot price of HRB400E Φ20 in Shanghai decreased from 3320 to 3280 yuan/ton (-1.20%) [7]. 02. This Week's Black Market Forecast Steel Products - Logic: The utilization rate of blast - furnace iron - making capacity increased slightly, while the profitability rate of steel mills decreased. The demand for finished steel products is weak, and the approaching parade may affect both supply and demand. The decline in coking coal and coke prices also contributed to the steel price adjustment [9]. - Viewpoint: The price of steel products is expected to be volatile and trend downward in the short term [9]. - Concerns: Macro - policies and downstream demand [9]. Iron Ore - Logic: The supply of iron ore has increased more than expected, with Australian and Brazilian shipments rising. The demand is still resilient but with a weakening support. The inventory is expected to remain stable or increase slightly [10]. - Viewpoint: The price of iron ore is expected to be stronger this week, trading in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]. - Concerns: Parade - related production - restriction policies, Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and supply growth rate [10]. Coking Coal and Coke - Logic: Coking coal prices were volatile last week, affected by a coal - mine accident and Fed's dovish remarks. Coke completed the 7th round of price increase. Environmental protection policies may lead to production restrictions in steel mills [11]. - Viewpoint: The prices of coking coal and coke are likely to be more volatile, with short - term demand showing a downward trend [11]. - Concerns: Implementation of environmental protection policies, coal production, steel - mill iron - water output, and import - coal customs clearance [11]. Ferroalloys - Logic: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations have increased. The supply of ferroalloys has increased slightly, while the demand has decreased slightly. The inventory has decreased, and the cost support is different for different alloys [12]. - Viewpoint: Ferroalloy prices are expected to follow the black market trend and trade in a range [12]. - Concerns: Tariff policies, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel - mill profitability, and domestic production - restriction policies [12]. 03. Variety Data Steel Products - Rebar: Last week, the production was 214.65 tons (down 5.8 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 194.8 tons (up 4.86 tons week - on - week). The total inventory increased by 19.85 tons to 607.04 tons [14][22]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The production was 325.24 tons (up 9.65 tons week - on - week), and the apparent demand was 321.27 tons (up 6.52 tons week - on - week). The total inventory increased by 3.97 tons to 361.44 tons [28][32]. Iron Ore - Port Inventory: The total port inventory of imported iron ore was 13845.20 tons (up 25.93 tons week - on - week), with the Australian ore inventory at 6114.03 tons (down 13.50 tons week - on - week) and the Brazilian ore inventory at 4996.89 tons (up 56.05 tons week - on - week) [45]. - Steel - Mill Inventory: The inventory of 247 steel mills was 9065.47 tons (down 70.93 tons week - on - week), and the daily consumption was 297.84 tons/day (down 0.68 tons/day week - on - week) [55]. - Global Shipment: The total global shipment was 3406.6 tons (up 359.9 tons week - on - week), with Australian and Brazilian shipments to the world at 2669.7 tons (up 242.0 tons week - on - week) [70]. Coking Coal and Coke - Inventory: The total coke inventory was 888.62 tons (up 1.21 tons week - on - week), and the total coking coal inventory was 2610.599 tons (up 17.7 tons week - on - week) [96][103]. - Profitability and Production: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises was 23 yuan (up 3 yuan week - on - week), and the daily production of 523 coking coal mines was 77.1 tons (up 0.7 tons week - on - week) [111][112]. Ferroalloys - Spot Price: The spot price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port (Mn36% semi - carbonate manganese block from South Africa) was 34 yuan/dry - ton degree (down 0.8 yuan week - on - week), the spot price of ferromanganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5750 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan week - on - week), and the spot price of ferrosilicon 72 in Inner Mongolia was 5300 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan week - on - week) [127]. - Production and Demand: The weekly production of silicomanganese (187 independent enterprises) was 211190 tons (up 4130 tons week - on - week), and the weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel products decreased by 0.08% week - on - week [133][139]. - Inventory: The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 156000 tons (down 2800 tons week - on - week), and the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 62080 tons (down 3100 tons week - on - week) [143].
华宝期货黑色产业链周报-20250825
Hua Bao Qi Huo·2025-08-25 14:16