美国消费行业7月跟踪报告：非农前值大幅下修，整体继续谨慎

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment stance on the consumer sector, particularly highlighting concerns over low-income consumer behavior and the impact of tariffs on essential goods [4]. Core Insights - The consumer confidence index has declined, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropping to 58.6 in August from 61.7 in July, marking a 5% decrease and falling below market expectations [7]. - Retail sales data remains resilient, with July retail sales reaching $726.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [7]. - Inflation remains moderate, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year in July, slightly below expectations [9]. - Employment data shows a significant downward revision, with only 73,000 non-farm jobs added in July, far below the expected 110,000 [14]. Macroeconomic Overview - Consumer confidence has weakened, with inflation concerns rising. The short-term inflation expectation increased from 4.5% to 4.9% [7]. - Retail sales growth is dependent on policy incentives and promotional activities, while consumer concerns about prices and unemployment persist [7]. - The CPI is influenced by declining energy prices and initial tariff effects, with core CPI reaching 3.1%, the highest this year [9]. Essential Consumption Insights - Beverage sales show marginal weakness, while tobacco data has rebounded. Alcohol and dairy sectors continue to exhibit weakness [27]. - Alcohol retail sales in June were $5.95 billion, down 3.3% year-on-year, indicating limited resilience in sales [27]. - Dairy product shipments totaled $13.61 billion in June, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, reflecting a relatively flat performance [31]. - Tobacco shipments reached $6.05 billion in June, up 7.3% year-on-year, with a CPI increase of 6.5% [33]. Discretionary Consumption Insights - Restaurant and department store sales show marginal weakness, while clothing sales have improved [35]. - Restaurant retail sales in July were $98.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, but a month-on-month decline of 0.4% [35]. - Department store sales reached $77.39 billion in July, up 2.3% year-on-year, but still below overall retail sales growth [38]. - Clothing retail sales in July were $26.63 billion, up 5.0% year-on-year, with expectations of price increases due to tariffs [40]. Market Performance and Valuation - The discretionary consumption sector performed well, with an 8.2% increase, while the essential consumption sector declined by 1.7% [4]. - The essential consumption ETF saw a net inflow of $120 million, while the non-essential consumption ETF experienced a net outflow of $650 million [4]. - The median valuation for leading food and beverage companies in the U.S. stock market was 24x at the end of July, indicating a relatively high valuation level [4].