螺纹热卷日报-20250825

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector rose today due to the relaxation of Shanghai's housing market policies and news of coal mine safety inspections, with coking coal and coke leading the gains. Steel spot trading was average, mainly at low prices. - Last week, steel production resumed. Rebar production continued to decline while hot - rolled coil production increased. The overall inventory of the five major steel products continued to accumulate, but the accumulation rate slowed down. - Recently, steel exports remained resilient, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was still strong. Building material demand rebounded from the bottom. - Currently, steel demand has shown some improvement. High hot - metal production and strong steel exports support steel prices. As the military parade approaches, hot - metal production is expected to decline in the second half of next week, alleviating the supply pressure of steel. - The recent coal mine accident in Fujian has raised market expectations of coal mine production cuts. The current futures price has fallen to a level close to that before the "anti - involution" impact, so steel prices may be strongly supported before the military parade with limited downside space. - However, coal consumption will decline after August, blast furnaces may resume production quickly, and the steel fundamentals will continue to deteriorate. If the expectation of coal mine production cuts fails, steel prices will still face pressure after the military parade. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. In September, attention should be paid to the peak - season demand for steel, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Rebar Futures: The prices of RB05, RB10, and RB01 contracts increased by 31 yuan/ton, 19 yuan/ton, and 29 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads and profits of different contracts also changed. For example, the 05 - contract rebar盘面利润 decreased by 20 yuan/ton [3]. - Rebar Spot: The prices of rebar in Shanghai, Nanjing, Shandong, and other regions increased. The cheapest delivery product was 3280 yuan/ton. The regional price differences and spot profits also showed different changes. For example, the profit of Shanghai - Nanjing rebar remained unchanged, while the profit of Shandong rebar decreased by 72 yuan/ton [3]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures: The prices of HC05, HC10, and HC01 contracts increased by 30 yuan/ton, 28 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads and profits of different contracts changed. For example, the 05 - contract hot - rolled coil盘面利润 decreased by 21 yuan/ton [3]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Spot: The prices of hot - rolled coils in Tianjin, Shanghai, and other regions increased. The cheapest delivery product was 3420 yuan/ton. The regional price differences and spot profits also showed different changes. For example, the profit of Shanghai - Tianjin hot - rolled coil remained unchanged, while the profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 16 yuan/ton [3]. Market Judgement - Related Prices: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3280 yuan (+30), Beijing Jingye was 3250 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3430 yuan (+30), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3380 yuan (+20) [7]. - Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to gradually close out long - short positions in rebar. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see. - Important Information - On August 25, six departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real - estate policies, including reducing housing purchase restrictions, optimizing housing provident funds, optimizing personal housing credit, and improving personal housing property tax. - On August 25, the China Coking Industry Association's Market Committee held a meeting. Participating enterprises decided to raise the prices of tamping wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton, tamping dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, and top - charged coke by 75 yuan/ton starting from 0:00 on August 26 [9][10]. Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts showing the prices, spreads, and profits of different contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions over different time periods, including basis, price differences between contracts, and cash profits [13].