黑色金属每日早盘观察-20250825

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term, with support from demand recovery, high iron - water output, and strong steel exports, but also facing pressure from potential iron - water production cuts and inventory accumulation [4]. - The double - coking market is expected to run strongly, and it is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips [10][12]. - The iron ore price is likely to oscillate in the short term, as the factors driving significant price increases are weakening, and the market may focus on the rapid decline in terminal steel demand [14][15]. - The ferroalloy market is expected to shift to bottom - oscillating in the short term after the over - valuation risk is largely released [21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Related Information: Last weekend, the ex - factory price of Tangshan Qian'an common billet increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3040 yuan/ton. The initial jobless claims in the US increased by 11,000 to 235,000 in the week ending August 16. As of the end of July, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.67 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power showing significant year - on - year growth. The spot prices of steel in Shanghai and Beijing decreased [3]. - Logic Analysis: The black sector rebounded slightly on the night of the 22nd. Steel production resumed last week, with rebar production decreasing and hot - rolled coil production increasing. The overall inventory of five major steel products continued to accumulate, but the accumulation speed slowed down. Steel exports remained resilient, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was still strong. With the approaching parade, iron - water production is expected to decrease, and steel prices will face short - term pressure, but the downward space is limited [4]. - Trading Strategies: Unilateral: Maintain a bottom - oscillating trend; Arbitrage: Intervene in positive spreads on dips and hold; Options: Wait and see [7][8]. Double - Coking - Related Information: On August 22, Fed Chairman Powell indicated that the Fed is open to interest - rate cuts. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.25%, and the daily average iron - water output increased. The prices of coke and coking coal were provided [9]. - Logic Analysis: After the coal mine accident in Fujian, national coal mine safety work is expected to be tightened, restricting the recovery of coal mine capacity utilization. The supply and demand of double - coking are currently balanced, and the futures price of coking coal has corrected. In the medium term, coal supply will be affected by policies, and the price center of coking coal will gradually rise [10]. - Trading Strategies: Unilateral: Run strongly, buy on dips; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see; Spot - futures: Wait and see [12]. Iron Ore - Related Information: On August 22, Powell signaled possible policy adjustments and interest - rate cuts. The prices of iron ore at Qingdao Port increased, and the basis of the 01 iron ore main contract was 38 [13]. - Logic Analysis: The iron ore price rose by 2.08% on Friday night due to interest - rate cut expectations. In terms of fundamentals, the shipments of mainstream mines have increased year - on - year in the past month, with differences between Australia and Brazil. The shipments of non - mainstream mines in August are expected to continue to contribute to the increase. The growth rate of manufacturing and infrastructure investment slowed down in July, suppressing terminal steel demand. The short - term iron ore price will oscillate [14][15]. - Trading Strategies: No specific strategies provided other than the analyst's note that the views are for reference only [17]. Ferroalloy - Related Information: The manganese ore inventory decreased in total, with different changes in different ports. The transaction prices of manganese ore at Tianjin Port were provided [18]. - Logic Analysis: The production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese continued to increase slightly this week, but the growth rate slowed down. The iron - water output of 247 steel mills increased slightly, and the apparent demand for steel rebounded. The approaching parade may cause short - term demand shocks. The cost is relatively stable. After the futures price dropped, the over - valuation risk was largely released, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [18][21]. - Trading Strategies: Unilateral: Oscillate at the bottom in the short term; Arbitrage: Gradually stop profiting from spot - futures positive spreads; Options: Sell straddle option combinations on rallies [22].