银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250825

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - side pressure in the egg market is significant. With the in - production egg - laying hen inventory at a high level in the same period over the years and the outflow of cold - stored eggs, the egg price has not risen during the peak season. Without large - scale over - culling in the short term, the bearish logic holds, and short - selling strategies can be considered [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Contract Prices: JD01 closed at 3383, down 51 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3482, down 30; JD09 closed at 2951, up 31 [3]. - Cross - month Spreads: The 01 - 05 spread was - 99, down 21; the 05 - 09 spread was 531, down 61; the 09 - 01 spread was - 432, up 82 [3]. - Ratio of Egg to Feed: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, down 0.01; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.56, down 0.01; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.34, up 0.02. The 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.09, down 0.03; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.22, down 0.02; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 0.96, unchanged [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - Egg Prices: The average price in the main production areas was 2.97 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.21 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin [3][6]. - Eliminated Chicken Prices: The average price of eliminated chickens was 4.72 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin [3][9]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - Costs: The average price of corn was 2371 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3102 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.59 yuan/jin, unchanged [3]. - Profits: The profit per feather of egg - laying hens was 1.77 yuan, up 0.29 yuan from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - Egg Price Trends: The national mainstream egg prices were temporarily stable, with prices in most regions remaining unchanged and some showing minor fluctuations. Egg prices continued to fluctuate and consolidate, with normal sales [6]. - In - production Egg - laying Hen Inventory: In July, the national in - production egg - laying hen inventory was 1.356 billion, an increase of 0.016 billion from the previous month and a 6.1% year - on - year increase. The estimated inventory in August, September, October, and November 2025 is 1.356 billion, 1.360 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7]. - Egg - laying Hen Chick Output: In July, the monthly output of egg - laying hen chicks in sample enterprises was 39.98 million, a 2% month - on - month decrease and a 4% year - on - year decrease [7]. - Egg - laying Hen Culling: In the week of August 14, the culling volume of egg - laying hens in the main production areas was 14.42 million, a 5% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - Egg Sales Volume: As of the week of August 14, the egg sales volume in the main sales areas was 7605 tons, a 1% increase from the previous week [8]. - Inventory: As of the week of August 7, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.17 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.03 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from the previous week [8]. - Profit: As of August 14, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week; on August 8, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 11.92 yuan/feather, a decrease of 2.02 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. 3.5 Trading Logic The supply - side pressure is significant, and the in - production inventory is at a high level in the same period over the years. The outflow of cold - stored eggs has put pressure on prices, resulting in falling egg prices during the peak season. Without large - scale over - culling in the short term, the bearish logic holds [10]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - Single - side Trading: Consider short - selling at high prices [11]. - Arbitrage: Short the near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and long the far - month contracts after the Spring Festival [11]. - Options: Sell call options [11].