银河期货苹果日报-20250825

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The current market inventory of apples is low, and the market demand is in the off - season, with general spot sales. The production of new - season apples is expected to change little compared to this season. The recent weakening of early - maturing apple prices puts pressure on the market, but the prices of high - quality Gala apples are performing well. It is expected that the short - term market will fluctuate widely [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Spot Prices: The Fuji apple price index was 109.50, up 0.07 from the previous trading day. The prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remained stable. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 6.86, up 0.04 [3]. - Futures Prices: AP01 closed at 8054, up 36; AP05 at 8029, up 24; AP10 at 8141, up 47. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as AP01 - AP05 increasing by 12 and AP05 - AP10 decreasing by 23 [3]. - Basis: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples against different futures contracts changed. For example, Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 decreased by 36, and Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP10 decreased by 47 [3]. Market News and Views - Inventory: As of August 13, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 46.01 tons, a decrease of 7.58 tons from the previous week, and the shipping speed slowed down slightly [4]. - Customs Data: In July 2025, the total export volume of fresh apples was about 5.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.95%. The import volume was 1.77 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.73% and a year - on - year increase of 8.47%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 8.66 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.76% [6]. - Market Conditions: The apple market in the producing areas was stable last Friday. The cold - storage shipping speed in Shandong was slow, while the early - maturing apple market in the northwest was generally good. The prices of high - quality goods were stable, while the prices of low - quality and small fruits declined. The overall market arrival volume was okay, and the profit margin of Gala apples was average [6]. - Profit: The profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from the previous week [7]. - Spot Prices: The mainstream prices of apples in Qixia, Shandong were stable. The prices of different grades and types of apples varied, and the procurement enthusiasm of merchants was average, with low trading volume [7]. Trading Logic - The spot market has low inventory and is in the off - season, with general sales. The new - season apple production is expected to be similar to this season. The weakening of early - maturing apple prices pressures the market, but high - quality Gala apple prices are good, so the short - term market is expected to fluctuate widely [8]. Trading Strategies - Single - side: It is expected that the short - term market will fluctuate widely [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Related Attachments - There are 10 figures in total, including the prices of different apple varieties, the basis of AP contracts, the spreads between different AP contracts, the arrival volume of apples in some markets, the prices of 6 kinds of fruits, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the whole country, and the cold - storage outbound volume of apples in the whole country [14][17][21][23][28].