银河期货油脂日报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the upward momentum of the oil market is insufficient, and prices may experience a limited - range correction. Holders of long positions can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding, while those without positions can wait for price corrections to go long at low prices. The YP01 spread may rebound in the short term, and holders of short YP spreads can also consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. The P15 spread can be considered to be widened after a correction. Options are recommended to be on the sidelines [5][6][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: For soybean oil, the 2601 closing price was 8488 with a rise of 30. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8678, 8828, and 8608 respectively, with basis spreads of 340, 190, and 120. For palm oil, the 2601 closing price was 9582 with a fall of 10. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 9562, 9612, and 9702 respectively, with basis spreads of - 20, 30, and 120. For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price was 9891 with a rise of 1. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10031, 9911 respectively, with basis spreads of 140 and 20 [3]. - Monthly Spread Closing Prices: The 1 - 5 monthly spreads for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 308, 292, and 174 respectively, with changes of - 8, - 6, and - 5 [3]. - Cross - Variety Spreads: The 01 - contract Y - P spread was - 1094 with a rise of 40, the OI - Y spread was 1403 with a fall of 29, the OI - P spread was 309 with a rise of 11, and the oil - meal ratio was 2.72 with a fall of 0.02 [3]. - Import Profits: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a盘面 profit of - 65 for the 10 - month shipment, with a CNF price of 1127. The Rotterdam - sourced rapeseed oil had a 10 - month shipment FOB price of 1075 and a盘面 profit of - 754 [3]. - Weekly Commercial Oil Inventories (2025 Week 33): Soybean oil inventory was 114.3 million tons, up from 113.8 million tons last week and 109.6 million tons last year. Palm oil inventory was 61.7 million tons, up from 60.0 million tons last week and 59.8 million tons last year. Rapeseed oil inventory was 66.0 million tons, down from 67.2 million tons last week but up from 42.6 million tons last year [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1141661 tons, a 10.9% increase compared to the same period last month [5]. - Domestic Market - Palm Oil: As of August 22, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.21 million tons, a 5.70% decrease from last week, at a slightly above - average level in historical terms. The origin's quotation decreased, and the import profit inversion narrowed. There was a reported long - term forward purchase. The spot market was stable, and the basis was stable with a slight increase [5]. - Domestic Market - Soybean Oil: As of August 22, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 118.6 million tons, a 3.79% increase from last week, slightly lower than the historical average but higher than the three - year average. The basis was stable. The short - term upward momentum of the oil market was insufficient, and soybean oil was more resistant to decline [6]. - Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil: As of August 15, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 66 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons from last week, still at a high level in historical terms but with continuous marginal inventory reduction. The European rapeseed oil FOB quotation increased to around 1030 US dollars, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 600. There were reports of near - term rapeseed contract cancellations. The spot market trading was light, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decrease [6][9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Single - Side Trading: Short - term, the oil prices are expected to correct with limited decline. Long - position holders can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding, and those without positions can wait for price corrections to go long at low prices [11]. - Arbitrage: The YP01 spread may rebound in the short term, and holders of short YP spreads can consider partial profit - taking and partial holding. The P15 spread can be considered to be widened after a correction [11]. - Options: Stay on the sidelines [12]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides eight figures, including the spot basis of East - China first - grade soybean oil, South - China 24 - degree palm oil, East - China third - grade rapeseed oil, and the 1 - 5 monthly spreads and 01 - contract cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, showing the historical trends from 2016 - 2025 [15][18].