高存栏背景下，旺季难旺

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the egg industry is bearish, with the supply rating being bearish, demand and profit being neutral, and strategies being bearish [2] Report's Core View - In the context of high egg production capacity, the traditional peak season this year is lackluster. The price of eggs is expected to decline until March next year, and the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength in egg futures is likely to continue [2] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - Spot Price: Involves the comparison between main production area prices and main sales area prices [3][5] - Egg Basis: Analyzes the basis of each egg futures contract [6][8] - Egg Spread: Focuses on the spreads between different egg futures contracts [9][10] - Futures Institutional Net Position: Examines the long - short ratios of institutional positions in the October and November egg futures contracts [12][13] Supply Analysis - Laying Hen Inventory: Covers laying hen inventory and its structure [15][16] - Culling Situation: Includes culling prices, average culling age, and the number of culled hens in sample enterprises [17][18] - Replenishment Situation: Analyzes the price and sales volume of commercial layer chicks [19][21] - Large and Small Egg Sizes: Considers the prices of large and small eggs and the seasonal chart of their price spreads [22][23] Demand Analysis - Shipping Volume and Sales Volume: Analyzes the sales volume in main sales areas and the shipping volume in main production areas [24][25] - Inventory: Covers the inventory in the production and circulation links [27][28] - Substitutes: Examines the seasonal charts of the price ratios between eggs and pork, and eggs and vegetables [29][31] Profit Analysis - Breeding Cost: Includes the feed cost per catty of eggs and the average price of layer feed [33][34] - Breeding Profit: Analyzes the egg - feed ratio, expected profit, and comprehensive breeding profit of laying hens [35][36]