纯苯、苯乙烯日报：短期或有支撑，基本面中期仍承压-20250825

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both the pure benzene and styrene markets show characteristics of being "strong in the short - term and pressured in the medium - term." Pure benzene may face dual pressure from domestic production and imports after September, leading to a mid - term decline. Styrene's mid - term price increase is limited due to supply surplus [3][4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Analysis - Price: On August 22, the styrene main contract closed up 1.22% at 7378 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 3 (- 29 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.13% at 6208 yuan/ton [2] - Cost: On August 22, Brent crude oil closed at 63.5 (+0.8 dollars/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at 67.7 (+0.8 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6090 yuan/ton (-20 yuan/ton) [2] - Inventory: Styrene sample factory inventory was 20.3 million tons (-0.3 million tons), a 1.1% month - on - month decrease; Jiangsu port inventory was 16.2 million tons (+1.3 million tons), an 8.5% month - on - month increase. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.4 million tons (-0.2 million tons), a 1.1% month - on - month decrease [2] - Supply: There will be styrene plant maintenance at the end of August, and supply may decrease. Currently, the weekly styrene output is 37.1 million tons (+0.2 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 78.5% (+0.3%) [2] - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S vary. EPS is 61.0% (+2.9%), ABS is 71.1% (+0%), and PS is 57.5% (+1.1%), showing a continuous recovery [2] (2) Viewpoints - Pure Benzene: In the short - term, it is relatively firm due to supply - side disturbances and low imports. However, after September, the market may decline due to domestic and import pressures [3] - Styrene: It shows short - term strength but medium - term pressure. Although there are some bright spots in demand, it cannot fully offset the pressure from new production capacity [4] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - Price: The prices of styrene and pure benzene futures and spot have different changes, and the prices of upstream Brent and WTI crude oil have increased [6] - Output and Inventory: The outputs of styrene and pure benzene in China have increased, styrene port inventory has increased, factory inventory has decreased, and pure benzene port inventory has decreased [7] - Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rates of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene have changed. For example, the capacity utilization rate of styrene has increased, and the capacity utilization rates of EPS and PS among styrene downstream products have increased [8] 3. Industry News - On the 22nd, the Russia - Ukraine peace talks faced resistance, causing international oil prices to rise; global diesel shortages support refinery profits, affecting the crude oil and chemical chains; India is accelerating petrochemical expansion to counter China's dominance [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides various data charts related to the prices, inventories, and capacity utilization rates of pure benzene and styrene [14][17][19]