乙二醇供应回升引发库存累积风险，关注需求表现

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of ethylene glycol may maintain a range - bound oscillation. The upside is restricted by port inventory pressure and supply increments from increased operating rates, while the downside is supported by peak - season demand expectations and the momentum of near - month basis repair. - In the medium to long term, if there is no seasonal boost on the demand side, the contango structure of the far - month contracts may continue, and there is a risk of the price center falling. Attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil fluctuations on the cost of oil - based production and changes in polyester production and sales data [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Main Contract and Basis - The main contract of ethylene glycol futures closed at 4,473 yuan/ton, showing an oscillating upward trend in the recent price range of 4,392 - 4,477 yuan/ton. The East China spot price remained stable at 4,510 yuan/ton, with a positive basis structure currently at 27 yuan/ton, slightly wider than before, indicating that the spot market is not significantly pressured. The 1 - 5 spread was - 43 yuan/ton, with the far - month contracts at a discount, reflecting the market's unchanged expectation of medium - to - long - term supply abundance [1]. b. Position and Trading Volume - The position of the main contract increased to 244,437 lots, while the trading volume was 183,696 lots. The increase in position but decrease in trading volume suggest a slowdown in capital game, and the short - covering of some short positions may drive up the price [1]. c. Supply Side - The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol rose to 66.22%, with the oil - based operating rate rebounding significantly by 3 percentage points to 67.11%, which is the main factor driving the supply increase. The coal - based operating rate remained at 65.12%, and the loads of methanol - based and ethylene - based production were stable. The marginal increase in coal - based supply gradually slowed down [1]. d. Demand Side - The load of polyester factories and the load of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 89.42% and 63.43% respectively. At the end of the off - season, the load of polyester factories increased, and the downstream rigid demand was stable. However, the medium - to - long - term demand improvement still needs to be viewed with caution [1]. e. Inventory Side - The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 5.9 tons to 48.57 tons week - on - week. The inventory in Zhangjiagang soared by 40.6% to 18 tons. The decrease in arrivals but slow port shipments led to a rapid inventory build - up, and the inventory pressure shifted to the spot market [2]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - The main contract price of MEG futures increased by 0.02% to 4,474 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 14.92% to 156,291 lots, and the position increased by 2.10% to 249,567 lots. The East China spot price remained unchanged at 4,510 yuan/ton. The MEG basis decreased by 23.40% to 36 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 23.26% to - 33 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 10.31% to 87 yuan/ton. The coal - based profit decreased by 0.69% to - 292 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol, coal - based operating rate, oil - based operating rate, polyester factory load, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile loom load remained unchanged. The East China main port inventory increased by 13.69% to 48.6 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 40.62% to 18 tons, and the arrivals decreased by 39.72% to 10.17 tons [4]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 22, the East China US dollar market fluctuated narrowly, with near - month cargoes negotiated in the range of 529 - 531 US dollars/ton in the morning and 527 - 529 US dollars/ton in the afternoon, and no transactions were heard. - The spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi remained stable at around 3,990 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. The coal market price was firm, and the downstream took goods for rigid demand. - The price in the mainstream market remained stable, and the price quoted by holders in the South China market remained stable at around 4,530 yuan/ton for delivery. - Overnight oil prices rose, providing good cost - side support. The arrival of ethylene glycol ships decreased, and the port spot was tight. However, there were plans to restart two ethylene glycol plants, and the market adjusted narrowly, with the current East China price negotiated at around 4,516 yuan/ton [5].