Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For zinc's inter - period arbitrage, considering the supply pattern affected by the production cycle of zinc mines at home and abroad, zinc ore supply will cyclically shift from tight to abundant. If there are no major highlights in demand throughout the year, the supply - demand balance will tend to shift towards surplus, putting pressure on the long - term price center. It is recommended to participate in zinc's inter - period positive arbitrage by rolling at low prices [5]. - For the cross - variety arbitrage of aluminum and zinc, the aluminum social inventory is low, which supports the price. The fundamentals of aluminum are stronger than those of zinc. It is recommended to participate in the strategy of buying aluminum and shorting zinc by rolling at low prices [5]. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Weekly Price Performance Review and Fund Flow - Weekly Price Review: From August 15th to August 22nd, 2025, LME copper rose by 0.37% (from 9760 to 9796.5), LME aluminum by 0.73% (from 2603 to 2622), LME zinc by 0.32% (from 2796.5 to 2805.5), LME lead by 0.71% (from 1981 to 1995), LME tin by 0.70% (from 33610 to 33845), while LME nickel fell by 0.63% (from 15195 to 15100). SHFE copper fell by 0.47% (from 79060 to 78690), SHFE aluminum by 0.67% (from 20770 to 20630), SHFE zinc by 1.02% (from 22505 to 22275), SHFE lead by 0.42% (from 16850 to 16780), SHFE nickel by 0.82% (from 120600 to 119610), and SHFE tin by 0.33% (from 266820 to 265930) [9]. - Fund Flow: Most non - ferrous metals' single - side open interest is at a relatively low level in recent years. Copper's single - side open interest has increased significantly recently. This week, nickel's single - side open interest increased by 9.1% month - on - month, while those of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and tin decreased by 1.3%, 4.3%, 1.9%, 3.8%, and 3.7% respectively. Except for nickel and tin, major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [11]. Part Two: Non - ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit Situation - Inventory Situation: As of August 22nd, 2025, compared with August 15th, LME copper inventory increased by 0.11% (from 155800 to 155975), LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.17% (from 479550 to 478725), LME zinc inventory decreased by 10.81% (from 76325 to 68075), LME lead inventory increased by 4.58% (from 261100 to 273050), LME nickel inventory decreased by 0.90% (from 211662 to 209748), and LME tin inventory increased by 7.85% (from 1655 to 1785) [28]. - Smelting Profit Situation: This week, copper's processing fee decreased slightly month - on - month, and smelters suffered a loss of 2350 yuan/ton, with the loss widening slightly month - on - month. Aluminum's theoretical smelting cost was 18624 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit rose slightly to 2126 yuan/ton. Zinc's imported processing fee increased slightly month - on - month, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic ore was 1230 yuan/ton [43]. Part Three: Non - ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - Basis Situation: On August 22nd, 2025, the copper basis was 320 (compared with 180 on August 15th), the aluminum basis was 120 (compared with - 90 on August 15th), the zinc basis was - 65 (compared with - 45 on August 15th), the lead basis was 60 (compared with - 10 on August 15th), the nickel basis was 1280 (compared with 1220 on August 15th), and the tin basis was 10 (compared with - 810 on August 15th) [46]. - Term Structure: This week, nickel and tin were in the Contango structure. Copper's spread between the first - nearby contract was - 40, an increase of 70 compared with last week; aluminum's spread was - 20, a decrease of 35 compared with last week; zinc's spread was 0, a decrease of 25 compared with last week; lead's spread was 0, a decrease of 90 compared with last week; nickel's spread was 150, a decrease of 50 compared with last week; tin's spread was 200, a decrease of 410 compared with last week [62]. Part Four: Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - Domestic - to - Overseas Ratio: The Shanghai - to - London ratios of zinc and lead are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the Shanghai - to - London ratios of major metals showed mixed trends. The Shanghai - to - London ratios of base metals were copper (1.12), aluminum (1.10), zinc (1.11), lead (1.17), nickel (1.10), and tin (1.09) [78]. - Import Profit and Loss: This week, the import profit and loss of copper and nickel were 103 and 415 respectively, while those of other major metals were negative. Cross - market arbitrage can focus on factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and domestic macro - policy expectations [78]. Part Five: Cross - Variety Ratio Changes of Non - ferrous Metals - As of August 22nd, 2025, the copper - aluminum ratio was 3.81 (79.9% in terms of the ratio percentile), the copper - zinc ratio was 3.53 (97.6% in terms of the ratio percentile), the copper - lead ratio was 4.69 (89.6% in terms of the ratio percentile), the copper - nickel ratio was 1.52 (1.1% in terms of the ratio percentile), the copper - tin ratio was 3.38 (68.9% in terms of the ratio percentile), the zinc - aluminum ratio was 1.08 (5.1% in terms of the ratio percentile), the aluminum - lead ratio was 1.23 (74.3% in terms of the ratio percentile), the aluminum - nickel ratio was 5.80 (0.5% in terms of the ratio percentile), the aluminum - tin ratio was 12.89 (73.7% in terms of the ratio percentile), the zinc - lead ratio was 1.33 (30.5% in terms of the ratio percentile), the zinc - nickel ratio was 5.37 (9.9% in terms of the ratio percentile), the zinc - tin ratio was 11.94 (88.1% in terms of the ratio percentile), the lead - nickel ratio was 7.13 (7.0% in terms of the ratio percentile), the lead - tin ratio was 15.85 (79.2% in terms of the ratio percentile), and the nickel - tin ratio was 2.22 (98.9% in terms of the ratio percentile) [96].
有色金属套利周报20250825-20250825
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-25 15:33