钢矿周度报告2025-08-25：产业炒作反复，钢矿震荡偏弱-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the spot price declined slightly, and the futures price fluctuated weakly. The supply increased overall, the construction material demand continued to decline, and the plate demand remained flat. The five major steel products accelerated inventory accumulation, and the market sentiment cooled significantly. It is expected that there is still room for correction in the black market, and the differentiation between varieties may intensify. Hold short positions in rebar and pay attention to the correction space [6]. - For iron ore, the price fluctuated narrowly, and the futures price was weak. The supply increased month - on - month, and the demand remained basically the same. The supply - demand structure became looser month - on - month. In the short term, the market is waiting and seeing. The strength of the peak - season demand for finished products cannot be verified or falsified, but the resilience of iron ore demand may be repeatedly traded. Compared with finished products, the iron ore price may maintain the current oscillating and relatively strong trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The rebar price fluctuated and declined last week. The rebar 10 contract fell 69 points to close at 3119, and the spot price in East China dropped 30 yuan/ton week - on - week to 3290 yuan/ton [12]. 3.1.2 Supply - The blast furnace start - up rate decreased, but the output increased. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.75 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons week - on - week. Some steel mills in Tangshan plan to overhaul blast furnaces at the end of the month, but the impact time is short [14][18]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 56.67%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points week - on - week. The short - process supply decreased due to factors such as tight scrap resources and falling rebar prices [21]. - The total output of the five major steel products last week was 878.06 tons, an increase of 6.43 tons week - on - week. Rebar production decreased significantly, while plate production increased [25]. 3.1.3 Demand - From August 13th to 19th, the national cement delivery volume increased by 2.8% week - on - week, and the infrastructure cement direct supply volume increased by 0.6% week - on - week. Although the high - temperature weather still significantly affected the construction material demand, the bottom of the demand may have appeared [28]. - In terms of hot - rolled coils, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in July was 5.7%, and that of the equipment manufacturing industry was 8.4%. Domestic manufacturing orders increased month - on - month, but overseas demand may continue to decline due to anti - dumping duties imposed by Japan and South Korea [31]. 3.1.4 Profit - The blast furnace steel mill profitability rate was 64.94%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points week - on - week. The average cost of independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3336 yuan/ton, and the average profit was - 93 yuan/ton. It is expected that both blast furnace and electric arc furnace profits will continue to shrink [35]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 1441.04 tons, an increase of 25.07 tons week - on - week. The accumulation rate of rebar social inventory slowed down, and the factory inventory increased slightly [39]. - In terms of hot - rolled coils, the factory inventory decreased by 10,000 tons last week, and the social inventory increased by 50,000 tons. The overall inventory level is still relatively low [42]. 3.1.6 Basis - The rebar 10 basis was 151, an increase of 39 compared with last week. The hot - rolled coil basis was 19, an increase of 28 compared with last week. Due to the relatively strong spot price during the peak season, the basis is difficult to repair significantly [45]. 3.1.7 Inter - delivery Spread - The 10 - 1 spread was - 76, and the inversion narrowed by 5 compared with last week. As the 10 - contract approaches its end, the pressure on the near - month contract increases. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 spread for potential positive - spread opportunities [48]. 3.1.8 Inter - variety Spread - The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 242, a narrowing of 9 compared with last week. The spot spread was 110, a narrowing of 20 compared with last week. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the 01 spread narrowing when the production - restriction policy is fully implemented [51]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The iron ore price fluctuated narrowly last week. The 01 contract fell 6 points to close at 770, and the spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port dropped 5 yuan/ton to 767 yuan/ton. The market sentiment cooled, and the overall market was in a wait - and - see mode [56]. 3.2.2 Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume was 34.066 million tons, an increase of 3.6 million tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume from Australia decreased by 690,000 tons month - on - month, while that from Brazil increased by 710,000 tons month - on - month [59][62]. - The 47 - port iron ore arrival volume was 27.031 million tons, an increase of 1.32 million tons week - on - week [65]. 3.2.3 Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 2.4075 million tons/day, an increase of 900 tons/day week - on - week. The demand for iron ore remained at a high level, showing strong resilience [68]. - The average daily port trading volume was 1.016 million tons, an increase of 62,000 tons week - on - week. Steel mills replenished inventory as needed [71]. 3.2.4 Port Inventory - The total inventory of 47 - port iron ore was 144.442 million tons, an increase of 630,000 tons week - on - week [75]. 3.2.5 Downstream Inventory - The total inventory of imported sintered powder in 114 steel mills was 27.5193 million tons, a decrease of 240,100 tons compared with the previous period. The overall change was not significant [78]. 3.2.6 Shipping - The freight from Western Australia to China was 9.21 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.72 US dollars week - on - week. The freight from Brazil to China was 23.17 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.5 US dollars week - on - week [82]. 3.2.7 Spread - The 1 - 5 spread was 22.5, an increase of 2 compared with last week, and it is at a relatively low - neutral level. The 01 - contract discount was 20, basically the same as last week, and the basis level is relatively low [86].