银河期货航运日报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Container shipping market: Spot rates are in a downward trend, but the EC market has rebounded slightly due to strong macro - sentiment. In the second half of the year, tariff pressure may intensify competition among shipping companies, and the support for off - season freight rates will weaken [5]. - Dry bulk shipping market: The large - ship market is expected to have weak price fluctuations in the short term, while the medium - ship market is expected to be slightly stronger [17]. - Oil tanker shipping market: The crude oil market shows an upward trend with a tight supply - demand pattern, while the refined oil market is relatively calm with weak demand and sufficient supply of some ship types [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Market performance: On August 25, EC2510 closed at 1358 points, up 3.74% from the previous day. The SCFI European Line reported on August 22 was 1668 USD/TEU, down 8.35% month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European Line reported after the market closed was 1990.2 points, down 8.7% month - on - month, and the final delivery settlement price of EC2508 was 2135.28 points [5]. - Tariff impact: The US plans to complete an investigation on imposing tariffs on furniture imports within 50 days. In 2024, furniture and home lighting products accounted for 13% of the total US container imports, which may bring cost pressure to major exporters such as China and Vietnam [5]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral trading is expected to be weakly volatile, and the valuation center of the October contract is expected to be revised downwards. For arbitrage, consider a 10 - 12 reverse spread operation at low prices [8]. Logical Analysis - Spot freight rates: The container shipping market has entered the off - season. In September, spot freight rates are in a rapid decline. The freight rates of major shipping companies have generally decreased [6]. - Supply and demand: On the demand side, the peak - season cargo volume has declined, and the loading rates of mainstream shipping companies have decreased. On the supply side, the average weekly capacity in August, September, and October 2025 is 29.78/29.54/27.04 million TEU, slightly lower than the previous week's schedule [6]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight rate index: The Baltic Dry Index rose 2.69% to 1944 points on August 22. The Capesize ship index rose about 3.33% to 2793 points, the Panamax ship index rose 2.97% to 1770 points, and the Supramax ship index rose 1.35% to 1424 points [12]. - Spot freight rates: On August 22, the freight rate of the Capesize ship's iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.44 USD/ton, up 0.73% month - on - month, and from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.40 USD/ton, up 7.37% month - on - month [13]. - Shipment data: From August 18 - 24, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3315.86 million tons, a decrease of 90.8 million tons month - on - month. In August 2025, Brazil's soybean, corn, and other grain exports showed different trends compared with the previous year [16]. Logical Analysis - Market performance: The international dry bulk shipping market declined slightly last week, mainly affected by the large - ship market. The Capesize ship market had insufficient demand and increased available capacity, while the Panamax ship market was supported by South American grain cargoes [17]. Oil Tanker Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight rates: On August 22, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 1042, up 1.26% month - on - month and 16.16% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 618, up 0.65% month - on - month and down 1.28% year - on - year [21]. - Market trends: The crude oil market is in an upward trend with a tight supply - demand pattern, while the refined oil market is relatively calm with weak demand and sufficient supply of some ship types. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of concentrated bookings on the Middle East route in September, and long - term attention should be paid to factors such as environmental protection and supply - demand reshaping [21]. Industry News - Container shipping: News includes Canada's adjustment of tariffs on US goods, the US's suspension of tax - free treatment for imported packages, the development of zero - emission fuels in the shipping industry, and the situation in the Red Sea [8][9]. - Dry bulk shipping: There are reports of a drone attack on Russia's Ust - Luga Port, and global and regional steel production and port export data [18]. - Oil tanker shipping: Global crude oil price differentials have changed, and there are gasoline shortages in some regions of Russia [22][23].