格林大华期货早盘提示-20250826

Report Industry Investment Rating - The macro and global financial economy is rated as (bullish) [1] Core View - The global economy maintains an upward trend with the Fed signaling a rate cut, China strengthening its domestic economic cycle, A - shares seeing net inflows, and positive PMI data in the US and eurozone [1][2] Summary by Directory Important Information - In Q2, US mutual funds reduced their holdings of the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks for the second consecutive quarter, with the under - allocation of the IT sector reaching a record high; hedge funds' tech stock allocation is at its lowest level since 2024, and Alphabet is one of the most heavily sold stocks [1] - As the performance of open - source and closed - source foundation models converges, building a moat for AI native applications becomes crucial, leading to a 20 - fold surge in GPU demand and potentially high AI infrastructure capital expenditure [1] - Musk's new company aims to use xAI's technology and computing power to simulate and replace software functions like Office [1] - In June, the US hiring rate was 3.3%, far lower than 4.6% in a strong job market, and the lay - off ratio was 1%, close to a historical low, making the labor market fragile and a concern for the Fed [1] - Trump has appointed two members to the Fed's seven - member board, and if he gets two more nominations, he could reshape the Fed [1] - On August 25, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised by 160 basis points to 7.1161, the highest since November 6, 2024, with the largest increase since January 21, 2025 [1] - Due to rising expectations of crude oil supply glut, the Brent crude futures price was 3 cents per barrel lower than Dubai crude, the first negative spread since April [1] Global Economic Logic - The Fed signaled at least a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September. China's domestic power consumption in July exceeded 1 trillion kWh. A - shares have been the most net - bought market recently. The US August Manufacturing PMI expanded at the fastest pace in over three years, and the eurozone August Manufacturing PMI rose from 49.8 to 50.5, breaking above the boom - bust line for the first time since June 2022 [1]