东吴证券晨会纪要-20250826

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that the U.S. economic data exceeded expectations, leading to a temporary decline in the September rate cut expectations. However, Fed Chair Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting paved the way for a rate cut in September. Optimistically, two rate cuts are expected in September and December, with a total reduction not exceeding 50 basis points for the year. The market currently prices in 2.2 rate cuts for the year, which may be overly optimistic and face adjustment risks [1]. Fixed Income - The convertible bond market is experiencing accumulating divergences, suggesting a cautious approach to high-priced targets while increasing ETF allocations to balance risks. Attention is drawn to the banking and infrastructure sectors, which have seen significant pullbacks, as well as low-priced targets in real estate and utilities [2][3]. Company Reports Siling Co., Ltd. (301550) - The company reported a revenue of 391 million yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.75%, and a net profit of 99 million yuan, up 4.95%. The second quarter saw a revenue of 196 million yuan, a slight decline of 0.41% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 11.05% [8]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 34.82%, up 1.94 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 25.35%, down 0.92 percentage points. The second quarter gross margin improved to 36.56% [8]. - The company is expanding its global footprint with stable orders from leading clients and is set to launch new production lines for robotic components, focusing on harmonic reducers [8]. Boqian New Materials (605376) - The company experienced significant year-on-year growth in performance, driven by the recovery of nickel-based products and ongoing advancements in copper-based products [9]. Mifus (02556.HK) - As a leading marketing SaaS provider, the company is expected to accelerate its platform transformation through AI capabilities, with projected revenues of 2.328 billion, 3.053 billion, and 3.926 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [9]. Huace Testing (300012) - The company maintains a steady growth outlook, with net profit forecasts of 1.06 billion, 1.17 billion, and 1.31 billion yuan for 2025-2027, supported by internal expansion and acquisitions [9]. Arrow Home (001322) - The company is adjusting its retail channels to enhance performance amid industry challenges, with revised net profit forecasts of 247 million, 308 million, and 363 million yuan for 2025-2027 [10]. Manbang Group (YMM) - The company anticipates core business growth despite short-term impacts from adjustments in freight brokerage, with revised net profit forecasts of 4.8 billion, 6.5 billion, and 8.2 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [12]. Huaguan Group (300979) - The company maintains net profit forecasts of 3.57 billion, 4.34 billion, and 5.12 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with expectations of efficiency improvements from new factories [13]. Chang'an Automobile (000625) - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts to 6.54 billion, 8.44 billion, and 10.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, while maintaining a "buy" rating due to brand advancements and global expansion [14]. Shantui (000680) - The company is expected to maintain net profit forecasts of 1.39 billion, 1.6 billion, and 1.85 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a focus on cost reduction and efficiency [15]. Marubi (603983) - The company reported a 31% increase in revenue for H1 2025, driven by a focus on major product lines and brand expansion [16]. Senma Clothing (002563) - The company is undergoing a retail transformation, leading to short-term profit pressures but long-term growth potential, with revised net profit forecasts of 979 million, 1.147 billion, and 1.385 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [17]. Huarui Pharmaceutical (600276) - The company reported strong growth in innovative drugs and business development, with a focus on expanding its market presence [22]. Jiugui Liquor (000799) - The company is in a deep adjustment phase, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit, but anticipates recovery as market conditions improve [23]. Zhongyan Hong Kong (06055.HK) - The company reported stable growth in its main business, with revised net profit forecasts of 938 million, 1.04 billion, and 1.211 billion HKD for 2025-2027 [24]. Gole Technology (301606) - The company is focusing on brand expansion and NAS product growth, with projected net profits of 640 million, 840 million, and 1.04 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [36].