瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, inflation risk is upward, employment risk is downward, and the situation is challenging. Recently, the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly, weakening the support of raw material costs. On the supply side, the production profit of steel mills has improved significantly. Due to the rise in steel prices and the weak increase in raw material costs, the output of steel mills is expected to increase in August. On the demand side, at the end of the traditional off - season for downstream consumption, there are optimistic expectations for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. The market's purchasing willingness has recovered, and the backlog of orders has been released. At the same time, holders are more willing to sell, and the domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend with stable spot premiums. Technically, with the decline in positions and the rise in prices, the short - selling atmosphere has weakened. It is recommended to wait and see or go long with a small position in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,880 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 125. The spread between the 09 - 10 contracts of stainless - steel is - 95 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 30. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,146 lots, with a decrease of 1,294. The position of the main contract is 144,460 lots, with an increase of 5,650. The warehouse receipt quantity is 101,925 tons, with a decrease of 16,715 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,650 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 50. The market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 420 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 22,200 metal tons, with a decrease of 400. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, with an increase of 21,018.74. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 835,900 tons, with a decrease of 205,500. The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 120,550 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 550. The average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 930 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless - steel is 1.6981 million tons, with a decrease of 45,900. The weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel is 590,100 tons, with an increase of 7,400. The monthly export volume of stainless - steel is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly value of new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, with an increase of 48.4168 million. The monthly output of excavators is 24,700 units, with a decrease of 2,100. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is - 190 units, and the monthly output of small tractors is 19,800 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - The deputy minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Xiong Jijun, said that the dominant position of enterprises in innovation will be strengthened, and the in - depth integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation will be promoted. Key core technologies such as GPU chips will be rapidly broken through, and the supply of basic and common technologies will be expanded. This year, the scale of China's intelligent computing power will increase by more than 40%. Powell said that the stable labor market indicators allow the Fed to consider policy adjustments carefully. The change in the baseline outlook and risk balance may require the Fed to adjust its policy stance. The labor market has achieved a "peculiar balance" due to the significant slowdown in both supply and demand, which implies an increased downside risk for employment. In the short - term, inflation risk is upward. On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply. However, the production capacity of Indonesian ferronickel is being released faster, and the output has rebounded significantly [2]