研究所晨会观点精萃-20250826

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the optimism about the interest - rate cut has subsided, the US dollar index has rebounded, and the global risk appetite has cooled. In China, the economic data in July was weaker than expected, but policy stimulus has increased, and the domestic risk preference has continued to rise. Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions [2]. - The recent market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with the short - term macro upward driving force marginally strengthened. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: Driven by sectors such as rare earths, liquor, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals, the domestic stock market continued to rise significantly. With the enhanced policy stimulus and reduced external risks, the domestic risk preference has increased. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish in the short term [3]. - Precious Metals: Precious metals oscillated on Monday. After Powell's dovish speech, the international gold price rose sharply. The market's expectation of a September interest - rate cut is over 86%. With stagflation risks and geopolitical uncertainties, gold has strong short - term support, but beware of the Fed's attitude reversal [3][4]. - Black Metals - Steel: The steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly on Monday. Although the current demand is weak and the inventory is rising, with the approaching of the 9.3 parade, supply is likely to decline. It is recommended to treat the steel market as a range - bound oscillation [5]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded significantly on Monday. With high steel - mill profits and increasing iron - water production, but due to the approaching parade and sufficient supply, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Monday, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. With increasing production and supply, the iron - alloy prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6][7]. - Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: The soda - ash main contract oscillated strongly on Monday. With high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, the supply - side contradiction suppresses the price, and the upside space is limited [8]. - Glass: The glass main contract was strong on Monday, affected by real - estate news. With stable supply and limited demand growth, it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: High tariffs affect the economy, and with increasing copper - mine supply and weakening domestic demand, the strong copper - price trend is hard to sustain [9][10]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price rose significantly on Monday, boosted by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. With increasing inventory, the medium - term upside space is limited, and it will oscillate in the short term [10]. - Aluminum Alloy: With tight scrap - aluminum supply, high production costs, and weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited [10]. - Tin: With increasing supply and weak demand, the tin price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support from smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations, but restricted by high tariffs,复产 expectations, and weak demand [11]. - Lithium Carbonate: After the previous sentiment decline, it is expected to oscillate widely, short - term bearish and long - term bullish [13]. - Industrial Silicon: With the black and polysilicon markets oscillating at high levels, the industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in a range [13]. - Polysilicon: Facing the game between strong expectations and weak reality, it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [14]. Energy and Chemicals - Methanol: With the restart of inland plants and concentrated arrivals, the price is under pressure. However, with the approaching of the traditional downstream peak season and the planned restart of MTO plants, the fundamentals are improving marginally, and the price is expected to oscillate [15][16]. - PP: With increasing supply pressure and a slight increase in downstream demand, the 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should be watched for peak - season stocking [16]. - LLDPE: With continuous supply pressure and a turning - point in demand, the 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term bearish, with attention to demand and stocking [16]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The overnight CBOT November soybeans closed down. The US soybean export inspection volume and the crop's good - to - excellent rate were better than expected, increasing the pressure of a bumper - harvest expectation [17]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The pressure of inventory accumulation of domestic oil - mill soybeans and soybean meal has eased. The supply in the fourth quarter may shrink, and rapeseed meal still has an upward - fluctuation basis [18]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: The rapeseed - oil port inventory has been decreasing, and the supply - contraction expectation is strong. The soybean - oil cost expectation has strengthened, and a low - valuation rebound is expected [19]. - Palm Oil: In the production - increasing cycle, with no prominent supply - demand contradiction and no incremental consumption expectation from policies, the market may enter an oscillation. The domestic demand is restricted by the soybean - palm - oil price difference, and the inventory is decreasing [20]. - Corn: The national corn price is running weakly. The futures price has entered a relatively low - valuation range, and the possibility of breaking through last year's range is small [21]. - Pigs: The weight of pigs has declined, and there is some support from secondary fattening. However, with the increase in secondary - fattening transportation costs and limited replenishment, the market's pessimism about the fourth - quarter outlook has increased [22][23].