瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has rebounded, but the port inventory of nickel ore in China has decreased, resulting in a tight raw material situation. [3] - In July, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable, the output of several smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output. [3] - The profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, leading to increased production. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, the nickel price has declined, the downstream purchasing atmosphere at low prices has improved, the spot premium has increased, and the domestic inventory has slightly decreased, while the overseas LME inventory has also decreased. [3] - Technically, the decline in positions and the rise in price indicate a weakening of the bearish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the battle at the 120,000 mark. It is recommended to wait and see for now, or go long lightly at low prices, with a reference range of 119,500 - 124,000. [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,310 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 700 yuan; the spread between the September - October contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan. [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 14,975 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 35 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 111,421 lots, an increase of 9,036 lots. [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 36,593 lots, a decrease of 1,224 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 209,748 tons, an increase of 150 tons. [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 26,943 tons (weekly), a decrease of 19 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 7,998 tons, an increase of 24 tons. [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 22,552 tons, a decrease of 36 tons. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 120,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 550 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 120,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 550 yuan. [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel in the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 330 yuan. [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 175.83 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11.13 US dollars. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 500.58 million tons, an increase of 65.92 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,205.85 million tons (weekly), an increase of 110.69 million tons. [3] - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 63.77 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.08 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons. [3] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, an increase of 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 835,900 tons, a decrease of 205,500 tons. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 4.59 million tons less; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 590,100 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons. [3] 3.6 Industry News - The vice - minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Xiong Jijun, said that the dominant position of enterprises in innovation will be strengthened, and the in - depth integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation will be promoted. Key core technologies such as GPU chips will be quickly broken through, and the supply of basic and common technologies will be expanded. The scale of intelligent computing power in China will increase by more than 40% this year. [3] - Powell said that the stable labor market indicators allow the Fed to consider policy adjustments carefully. The change in the baseline outlook and risk balance may require the Fed to adjust its policy stance. The labor market has achieved a "strange balance" due to the significant slowdown in both supply and demand, indicating an increased downside risk to employment. In the short term, the inflation risk is upward. The Fed has adjusted its monetary policy framework, eliminating the policy of tolerating high inflation and promising to anchor long - term inflation expectations. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will guide the construction of computing power facilities in an orderly manner and accelerate the breakthrough of key core technologies such as GPU chips. [3]