美元走强压制大宗价格，软商品短期调整

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "Sideways" [1]. - The investment rating for cotton is "Sideways" [1]. Core Viewpoints - The strengthening US dollar suppresses commodity prices, leading to short - term adjustments in soft commodities [1]. - For sugar, seasonal consumption growth is driven by summer cold - drink demand, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. However, the total annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range. Extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugar production, and continuous monitoring is required [1][3]. - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, with some areas in Xinjiang entering the boll - opening and flocculation stage, and the overall growth progress is ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces a high risk of heat damage. With the continuous decline of commercial cotton inventory and the approaching peak season of cotton textile, cotton prices are supported [1][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Information - The spot price of sugar in Nanning is 5970.0 yuan, in Kunming is 5860.0 yuan, and the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang is 15100.0 yuan [1]. Market - The closing price of US sugar is 16.39, with a change of - 0.30%. The closing price of US cotton is 67.38, with a change of - 0.91% [1]. Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by summer cold - drink demand, sugar consumption has a seasonal recovery. Due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, recent sugar imports have increased significantly [1]. - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increase the risk of heat damage to cotton. The continuous decline of commercial cotton inventory and the approaching peak season of cotton textile provide support for cotton prices [1]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts is 15385.0, with a change of - 1.09%. The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts is 7104.0, with a change of - 1.31% [2]. Data Overview - Foreign Market Quotes: On August 25, 2025, the price of US sugar was 16.39 dollars, down 0.30% from the previous day; the price of US cotton was 67.38 dollars, down 0.91% [4]. - Spot Prices: From August 22 to 25, 2025, the price of Nanning sugar remained unchanged at 5970.0 yuan; the price of Kunming sugar rose from 5855.0 yuan to 5860.0 yuan, an increase of 0.09%; the cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a decrease of 0.05%; the price of Xinjiang cotton rose from 15050.0 yuan to 15100.0 yuan, an increase of 0.33% [4]. - Price Difference Overview: From August 24 to 25, 2025, the price differences of SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, SR09 - 01, CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, and CF09 - 01 all changed to varying degrees, with the largest increase of 22.11% and the largest decrease of 42.86%. The basis of sugar and cotton contracts also changed, with the largest increase of 8.53% and the largest decrease of 8.08% [4]. - Import Prices: From August 22 to 25, 2025, the price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 78.9 [4]. - Profit Margins: From August 22 to 25, 2025, the profit from sugar imports remained unchanged at 1515.0 [4]. - Options: For options such as SR601C5700, SR601P5700, CF601C14200, and CF601P14200, the implied volatility and historical volatility of the underlying futures are provided [4]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: From August 22 to 25, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 15555.0 to 15385.0, a decrease of 1.09%; the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 7198.0 to 7104.0, a decrease of 1.31% [4]. Strategy Suggestion - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [3].