宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250826

Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures' morning report on beans and oils on August 26, 2025, covering the price trends, views, and core logics of multiple agricultural product futures varieties [1]. Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Core Views - The domestic situation of weak reality and strong expectations in the soybean market has not changed, and short - term soybean futures prices are highly volatile at high levels. Affected by the changes in the prospects of Sino - US trade negotiations, short - term funds on the futures market enter and exit frequently, which may continue to intensify market fluctuations. Short - term soybean meal futures prices will mainly fluctuate at high levels [5]. - The positive expectations of the Southeast Asian palm oil industry chain support the palm oil futures prices. Affected by emotional fluctuations, the prices will mainly fluctuate at high levels with strong support below. After a short - term continuous rise, short - term funds closing their positions cause the palm oil futures prices to fluctuate at high levels [8]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Time - frame Views: Short - term view is "oscillating", medium - term view is "oscillating", and intraday view is "oscillating weakly". The reference view is also "oscillating weakly". The core logic involves the import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [5][7]. Palm Oil (P) - Time - frame Views: Short - term view is "strong", medium - term view is "oscillating", and intraday view is "oscillating weakly". The reference view is "oscillating weakly". The core logic includes the biodiesel attribute, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, the tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventories, and substitution demand [7][8]. Soybean Oil - Time - frame Views: Short - term view is "strong", medium - term view is "oscillating", and intraday view is "oscillating weakly". The reference view is "oscillating weakly". The core logic is related to the US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [7].