集运指数（欧线）：或延续弱势震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European route) is expected to continue its weak oscillation. The freight rate in September is on a downward trend, with a possible slowdown in the decline in the second week, but the downward pressure on freight rates in the second half of the month is still significant. In the short term, the spot market is expected to remain weak; in the medium term, if the loading rate further declines and the FAK freight rate approaches the shipping company's cash - flow cost line, some shipping companies may increase the suspension of voyages, and the further downward space for freight rates may be limited [7]. - For the 2510 contract, it is recommended to close short positions on dips. For the 2512 and 2602 contracts, it is advisable to wait and see in terms of single - side valuation, and pay attention to the opportunity to enter the 12 - 04 calendar spread trade in the next 1 - 2 weeks [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: On August 26, 2025, the closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, and EC2602 were 1,358.0 (up 2.57%), 1,696.7 (up 0.50%), and 1,496.9 (up 0.78%) respectively. The trading volumes were 39,234, 7,289, and 1,070, and the open interests were 54,357, 13,515, and 4,497 respectively. The open interest changes were +102, +220, and +42 respectively [1]. - Freight Rate Index: The SCFIS European route index was 1,990.20 points, down 8.7% week - on - week; the SCFIS US - West route index was 1,041.38 points, down 5.9% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $1,668/TEU, down 8.4% bi - weekly; the SCFI US - West route index was $1,644/FEU, down 6.5% bi - weekly [1]. - Spot Freight Rates: The average FAK in the first week of September was around $2,270/FEU, a drop of $1,100/FEU from the peak in early August. The average values of the Gemini, OA, and PA alliances in the first week of September were $2,170/FEU, $2,330/FEU, and $2,240/FEU respectively. MSC reduced the price by $250 to $2,340/FEU on August 26, and the SPOT price was reported at $2,140/FEU [5]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply Side: In September, the number of undetermined ships decreased by 1 to 1, and the number of blank sailings decreased by 1 to 5. The weekly average capacity in September was slightly revised up from 29.7 to 30.0 million TEU/week. The capacity in September decreased by about 6% compared with August, significantly lower than the 14% decline in the same period in 2024. In the second week of September, the capacity reduction was relatively large, and the decline in the freight rate center is expected to slow down. In October, the number of undetermined ships remained at 6, and the number of blank sailings remained at 4. Without considering undetermined voyages, the weekly average capacity was 29.1 million TEU/week [6]. - Demand Side: At the end of the month, the cargo - collecting situations of shipping companies varied. Maersk's cargo - collecting results were better than the company's target due to significant and early price cuts in the 35th week. The long - term contract customers of COSCO decreased, and the cargo - collecting pressure on some voyages at the end of the month increased significantly [6]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Strategy - Market Outlook: In the short term, due to the expected decline in spot prices, the futures price oscillated downward, and the discount of the 2510 contract decreased from 22% to 18%. In the medium term, if the loading rate further declines and the FAK freight rate approaches the shipping company's cash - flow cost line of $1,300 - 1,600/FEU, some shipping companies may increase the suspension of voyages, and the further downward space for freight rates may be limited [7]. - Strategy: Close short positions of the 2510 contract on dips. Wait and see for the single - side valuation of the 2512 and 2602 contracts, and pay attention to the opportunity to enter the 12 - 04 calendar spread trade in the next 1 - 2 weeks [9]. 3.4 Historical Market Review - In 2024, the weighted index of the European route stopped falling on September 10. There was a short - term speculation about the strike at US - West ports in late September. After the strike was resolved during the National Day holiday, the premium of the "strike" was given back on the first trading day after the holiday. On the second trading day, the market started to trade the shipping company's price increase announcement. Maersk announced a price increase to $4,500/FEU effective from November 4, and the actual price increase in early November was around $4,000/FEU. Subsequently, shipping companies announced price increases in late November, early December, and late December. The peak freight rate appeared in the first week of December [8].