Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the increase in the operating rate of primary enterprises and the bullish sentiment in commodities provide support for lead prices. However, in the medium term, there is still significant pressure on terminal consumption, and the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on lead prices is weaker than that on other non - ferrous metals, so there is still a risk of price decline [2]. 3) Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Weak Demand: Peak Season Fails to Deliver, High Terminal Consumption Pressure - In primary consumption, the weekly average operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is 71.64%. After the 10 - day high - temperature holiday, the operating rate of downstream battery enterprises recovered rapidly. In July 2025, the apparent demand for domestic lead ingots was 651,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.7% and a month - on - month change of 4.3%. From January to July, the cumulative apparent demand for domestic lead ingots was 4.4784 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7%. The overall consumption during the seasonal peak season remained weak [4]. - In the domestic terminal market, in July 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery factories decreased from 26 days to 21.8 days, while the inventory days of lead - acid batteries at dealers increased from 39.9 days to 44.6 days. Even considering the seasonal transfer of inventory during the earnings seasons from May - June and November - December, the dealer inventory in July 2025 had reached an absolute high since 2021, indicating weak terminal consumption [4]. - In terms of battery exports, in July 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 20.8925 million units, the net export weight was 106,600 tons, and the estimated net export of lead in batteries was 66,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 4.8% and a month - on - month change of 7.4%. From January to July, the total net export of lead in batteries was 432,900 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 3.3%. The cumulative exports in June and July were the first to be continuously lower than the previous year since 2021, and the consumption growth brought by lead - acid battery exports has disappeared [5]. Weak Supply: Tight Raw Materials for Primary and Secondary Smelting, Loose Lead Ingot Supply - At the primary end, in July 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 154,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 3.69% and a month - on - month change of 0.98%. From January to July, the total production of lead concentrate was 941,600 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.41%. In July, the net import of lead - containing ores was 135,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 20.6% and a month - on - month change of 11.5%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 875,200 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 19.2%. Although there were significant increases in domestic production and imports of lead ore, due to the good profits of primary lead smelters and an operating rate higher than the same period in previous years, lead ore raw materials were still in short supply, and lead concentrate processing fees continued to decline [13]. - At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 78,000 tons, lower than the same period in previous years. The operating rate of secondary lead smelters remained relatively low but increased marginally compared to the previous period. In July 2025, China's secondary lead production was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 3.11% and a month - on - month change of 10.92%. From January to July, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 2.2516 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 0.37% [13]. - In general, in July 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 654,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 5.1%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 4.5165 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.7%. Although the raw materials for both primary and secondary lead smelting were relatively scarce, the total supply of lead ingots remained relatively loose [14]. Weak Structure - Domestically, the finished product inventory of primary lead has accumulated to 11,900 tons, and that of secondary lead has accumulated to 18,800 tons. The domestic social inventory according to the Steel Union's data has slightly decreased to 63,200 tons. The lead ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 58,900 tons. The domestic primary lead basis is - 85 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract is at par. The total domestic visible inventory of lead ingots has long remained at around 90,000 tons, showing a situation of weak supply and demand [28]. - Overseas, the LME lead ingot inventory is 279,600 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants are 54,100 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract on the outer market is - 38.38 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread is - 63.1 dollars/ton. The LME lead inventory is at an absolute high, which has long suppressed the weak operation of the LME lead inter - month structure [28].
铅：联储鸽派能否缓解终端消费压力
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-26 01:27