国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250826

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel is expected to trade in a narrow range [2][4]. - Stainless steel is likely to experience a short - term low - level oscillation [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate may continue to trade in a range due to limited drivers [2][10]. - For industrial silicon, the strategy is to short at high prices [2][14]. - Polysilicon is expected to trade in a range, and market information should be closely monitored [2][15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,310, up 700 from T - 1. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,880, up 130 from T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, import prices, and spreads also showed various changes [4]. - Macro and Industry News: There were issues like potential export restrictions from Canada, new production in Indonesia, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, and production cuts in some Indonesian nickel - iron plants [4][5][6]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 79,580, up 400 from T - 1. Other data related to trading volume,持仓量, and prices of lithium - related products also had corresponding changes [11]. - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. Ganfeng Lithium reported financial results affected by the market, but also made progress in battery development [12][13]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for lithium carbonate is 0, suggesting a neutral view [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The Si2511 contract closed at 8,675, down 70 from T - 1. Data on trading volume,持仓量, prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends [15]. - Macro and Industry News: There was a large - scale photovoltaic component procurement tender [16]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral stance [17].