国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250826
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-26 01:27
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: The macro risk appetite has not significantly declined, and there is still support [2][5]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and prices are in wide - range oscillations [2][9][10]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Driven by sector sentiment, prices are in wide - range oscillations [2][13]. - Coke and coking coal: Prices are in wide - range oscillations [2][16]. - Logs: Prices are fluctuating repeatedly [2][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamental data: The futures price closed at 787.0 yuan/ton, up 17.0 yuan/ton or 2.21%. The I2601 contract had a position of 464,830 lots, an increase of 12,205 lots. Among spot prices, imported ore prices generally rose by 13 yuan/ton, while domestic ore prices in some areas decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads showed certain changes [6]. - Macro and industry news: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [6]. - Trend strength: The trend strength of iron ore is 1 [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental data: The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,138 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.71%, with a trading volume of 1,200,313 lots and a position of 1,347,830 lots, a decrease of 63,773 lots. The HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,389 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton or 0.92%. Spot prices in various regions generally increased. The basis and spreads also changed [10]. - Macro and industry news: On August 21, steel output, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends. In mid - August 2025, the output and inventory of key steel enterprises changed. The manufacturing supply index in July decreased. The national general public budget revenue from January to July increased slightly [11][12]. - Trend strength: The trend strength of rebar is 0, and that of hot - rolled coil is 0 [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental data: Futures prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese had varying increases. Spot prices of related products were provided. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads showed certain changes [13]. - Macro and industry news: On August 25, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. As of August 22, the manganese ore inventory in ports changed [14]. - Trend strength: The trend strength of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is 0 [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental data: The JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,215.5 yuan/ton, up 53.5 yuan/ton or 4.6%. The J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,736 yuan/ton, up 57.5 yuan/ton or 3.4%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some areas remained unchanged, while others changed. The basis and spreads also changed [16]. - Macro and industry news: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [16]. - Trend strength: The trend strength of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 0 [17]. Logs - Fundamental data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts of logs showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained mostly unchanged. The basis and spreads also had certain changes [19]. - Macro and industry news: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [21]. - Trend strength: The trend strength of logs is 1 [21].