上海楼市新政出炉!复刻北京做法,放开外环限购限制
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-26 01:26
- Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views - Shanghai's new real - estate policies will release housing demand, especially in outer - ring areas with high inventory, and may lead to a rebound in trading volume [6] - The coking coal market is short - term strong and medium - term bearish. Short - term strength is due to supply contraction expectations and positive macro - sentiment, while medium - term decline is because of weak demand in the peak season [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Real Estate - On August 25, Shanghai issued "Six Measures for the Housing Market", including relaxing outer - ring purchase restrictions, allowing single people to buy as families, and enabling housing provident funds to pay down - payments. This will directly benefit the release of housing demand, especially for high - inventory projects in outer - ring areas [6] 3.2 Coal and Coke - Short - term: Coal mine accidents lead to supply contraction expectations for coking coal, and combined with positive macro - sentiment, coking coal prices are expected to rise [7] - Medium - term: Terminal demand in the peak season is likely to be weak, and the role - change of traders will increase supply pressure, leading to price declines and profit compression [8] 3.3 Commodities - Precious Metals: Gold is influenced by the dovish stance of Powell at the JH meeting, and silver is approaching its previous high [11] - Base Metals: Copper's price increase is restricted by the rising US dollar; zinc shows narrow - range fluctuations; lead lacks driving forces and its price fluctuates; tin moves in a range; aluminum's fluctuations converge; alumina declines slightly; and casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [11][22][25] - Energy Metals: Nickel moves in a narrow range, and stainless steel fluctuates at a low level in the short - term; lithium carbonate may continue to fluctuate in a range due to limited drivers [11][39][45] - Industrial Metals: Iron ore is supported by the non - significant decline in macro - risk appetite; rebar and hot - rolled coil fluctuate widely due to repeated market sentiment; ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate widely driven by sector sentiment; coke and coking coal also fluctuate widely [11][53][57][61][64] - Agricultural Products: Palm oil waits for a pull - back to go long; soybean oil consolidates at a high level; soybean meal may adjust and fluctuate; and corn moves in a range [11][64][66][68] - Chemicals: Para - xylene is in a tight supply - demand balance and has a strong upward trend; PTA has a new device put into operation by Sanfangxiang and is suitable for positive spreads; MEG has a strong upward trend; rubber moves in a range; synthetic rubber is short - term strong and medium - term range - bound; asphalt's cracking continues to weaken; LLDPE fluctuates strongly in the short - term; PP rebounds in the short - term and is a medium - term oscillating market; caustic soda corrects in the short - term; paper pulp moves in a range; glass's original sheet price is stable; methanol is supported in short - term oscillations; urea is in a weak operation; styrene is short - term strong and medium - term bearish; and soda ash's spot market changes little [11][70] - Others: Logs fluctuate repeatedly [66]