沥青：裂解续弱

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: August 26, 2025 [1] - Research subject: Asphalt - Core view: Asphalt cracking continues to weaken [1] Group 2: Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - BU2509 yesterday's closing price was 3,545 yuan/ton, up 0.71%, and night - session closing price was 3,549 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. Trading volume was 5,925 lots, a decrease of 240 lots, and open interest was 15,517 lots, a decrease of 2,366 lots [2] - BU2510 yesterday's closing price was 3,512 yuan/ton, up 0.83%, and night - session closing price was 3,528 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. Trading volume was 169,612 lots, an increase of 30,160 lots, and open interest was 191,301 lots, a decrease of 17,115 lots [2] - Total asphalt market yesterday's warehouse receipts were 72,650 lots, with no change [2] Spread - The basis (Shandong - 09) was - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2] - The 09 - 10 inter - period spread was 33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2] - The Shandong - South China spread was 40, an increase of 20 compared to the previous day [2] - The East China - South China spread was 240 yuan/ton, with no change [2] Spot Market - Shandong wholesale price was 3,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton, the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,626 yuan/ton, and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,763 yuan/ton [2] - Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,720 yuan/ton, with no change, the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,735 yuan/ton, and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,791 yuan/ton [2] Operating and Inventory Rates - As of August 25, the refinery operating rate was 36.67%, a decrease of 0.25% compared to August 21 [2] - As of August 25, the refinery inventory rate was 27.15%, a decrease of 0.66% compared to August 21 [2] Group 3: Trend Intensity - Asphalt trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively neutral market sentiment [9] Group 4: Market Information - In September 2025, domestic asphalt total planned production is 2.686 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 273,000 tons (11.3%) and a year - on - year increase of 683,000 tons (34.1%) [15] - From August 19 - 25, 2025, domestic asphalt weekly total production was 525,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,000 tons (4.7%) and a year - on - year increase of 63,000 tons (13.6%). The cumulative production from January to August was 2.0128 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 187,400 tons (10.3%) [15] - As of August 25, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample factory warehouses was 733,000 tons, a decrease of 2.7% compared to August 21. Shandong had the largest de - stocking in factory warehouses [15] - As of August 25, 2025, the total inventory of 104 asphalt social warehouses was 1.784 million tons, remaining stable compared to August 21. Shandong had obvious inventory accumulation in social warehouses, while Northeast China had obvious de - stocking [15][16]