交银国际每日晨报-20250826

Global Macro - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting indicated a dovish stance, suggesting that the risks of a downturn in the labor market outweigh the risks of rising inflation, thus opening the door for a potential rate cut in September [1] - The Fed's policy framework is shifting from an average inflation targeting (AIT) to a flexible inflation target of 2%, eliminating the concept of inflation "compensation" [1] - The labor market's downward risks and the delayed inflation effects from tariffs are expected to support the case for a rate cut in September [1][2] Kuaishou (快手) - Kuaishou's Q2 2025 total revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit reaching 5.6 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 10% due to improved gross margin and marketing expense ratio [3][5] - For Q3 2025, e-commerce GMV is expected to grow by 15%, driven by increased frequency across multiple scenarios, while advertising revenue is projected to grow by 13%, lower than previous expectations due to reduced advertising budgets [5] - The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance to 125 million USD, indicating further upside potential [5] Stone Pharmaceutical Group (石药集团) - In Q2 2025, the pharmaceutical business continued to face pressure, with revenue declining by 18% year-on-year, and product sales dropping by 25% after excluding licensing fees [6][7] - The management expects a sequential improvement in H2 2025, with revenue projected to grow by over 5% compared to H1 2025 and return to positive growth year-on-year [6] - The company announced an interim dividend of 0.14 HKD per share, with an expected full-year dividend of no less than 0.28 HKD per share [6] Jiumaojiu (九毛九) - Jiumaojiu's revenue in H1 2025 decreased by 10.1% year-on-year to 2.75 billion RMB, with a net profit decline of 16% to 60.69 million RMB due to same-store sales decline and store network adjustments [8][9] - The company is exploring new store models to drive same-store sales recovery, although the current network is still in a restructuring phase [9] - The management anticipates closing an additional 40-50 stores in H2 2025, indicating ongoing adjustments to the store network [9] Link REIT (领展房托) - Link REIT expects that the impact of potential interest rate cuts will outweigh rental adjustments, leading to a slight increase in target price to 49.80 HKD [10][11] - The company predicts that the recent decline in HIBOR/SORA/BBSY will help reduce financing costs, maintaining a buy rating [11] - The rental income from the mainland remains stable, with slight pressure on rental income from retail and office assets [12]