宝城期货煤焦早报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For both the 2601 contract of coking coal and coke, the short - term view is oscillatory and bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory and bullish, and the intraday view is upward, with an overall reference view of oscillation [1]. - Coking coal is affected by a combination of long and short factors and will oscillate within a range; coke is affected by environmental protection production restrictions and will operate at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - Price Movement Logic: The supply of coking coal has marginally increased. The daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines in the country is 77.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 million tons, and 2.4 million tons lower than the same period last year; the daily average output of raw coal is 191.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.3 million tons, and 13.8 million tons lower than the same period last year. The number of Mongolian coal customs - clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port from August 1st to 18th increased by 81.8% year - on - year. The total daily average output of coke from coking plants and steel mills increased slightly by 0.07 million tons week - on - week. Affected by factors such as supply increase, exchange risk control, and downstream production restrictions, coking coal has undergone a phased adjustment, but the "anti - involution" theme may bring positive news, making coking coal futures more likely to rise than fall [5]. Coke (J) - Price Movement Logic: As the "anti - involution" theme gradually develops, the futures market has entered the verification stage from the previous strong cost - side expectation, increasing market competition. Coke futures are consolidating at a high level. Considering that the upstream may introduce relevant policies to cooperate with the "anti - involution" theme, the cost side is expected to form a positive support, and coke may show a characteristic of being more likely to rise than fall in the long - term [6].