宝城期货国债期货早报-20250826

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of treasury bond futures is to maintain a bottom - side oscillating trend in the short term. The upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient due to a decreased possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts and a rising risk appetite in the stock market. However, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates limits the upward space of market interest rates, providing strong support for treasury bond futures [5]. - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillating, with an intraday view of slightly weak oscillation, mainly because the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is slightly weak oscillation, and the overall view is oscillating. The core logic is that the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased and the risk appetite in the stock market has increased [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is slightly weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. - The core logic is that although treasury bond futures oscillated upwards yesterday, their upward momentum is insufficient. On one hand, the monetary policy in the second half of this year emphasizes implementation and structuring, reducing the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts. On the other hand, the risk appetite in the stock market continues to rise, with the trading volume in the stock market exceeding 3 trillion yuan, attracting funds to flow into the stock market and suppressing the demand for purchasing treasury bonds. However, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates limits the upward space of market interest rates, providing strong support for treasury bond futures, so they will maintain a bottom - side oscillating trend in the short term [5].