铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250826

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Trump's actions have caused market fluctuations overseas. The probability of a September interest rate cut is 93%. In China, the stock market has continued its upward trend, and the bond market may recover. Different commodities have different trends based on macro - factors and fundamentals [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: Trump's actions, including threatening to sanction EU officials, talking about drug price cuts, threatening tariffs on China, etc., have led to a rise in the US dollar index, a decline in US stocks, a slight rebound in US bond yields, a small drop in gold prices, an increase in copper prices, and a continued rise in oil prices. The probability of a September interest rate cut is 93% [2]. - Domestic: Shanghai has introduced the "Six Measures for Shanghai's Real Estate Market". The second - quarter real estate data has continued to decline. The A - share market has continued to rise, and the bond market has shown an independent trend. The stock market may be approaching a peak and adjustment window, while the bond market is expected to recover [3]. Precious Metals - On Monday, international precious metal futures prices slightly declined. The rebound of the US dollar index has put pressure on precious metal prices. The market expects an 86% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The current market focus is on the US PCE data to be released on Friday, and short - term precious metal prices are expected to fluctuate [4][5]. Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper rebounded steadily. The Fed's possible interest rate cut and Codelco's reduction of copper production expectations will drive copper prices upward in the medium - term. In the short - term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen [6][7]. Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose. The market's risk appetite has increased due to the expected interest rate cut in September, and Shanghai's real estate new policy has created a positive macro - atmosphere. However, the increase in aluminum ingot inventory and the uncertain consumption situation mean that the upward space of aluminum prices depends on consumption performance [8]. Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures rose. The overall sentiment in the commodity market is positive, but the increase in warehouse receipts and stable supply capacity create upward pressure. Alumina is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [9][10]. Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated narrowly. The market's optimism about the interest rate cut has subsided, and zinc prices have rebounded moderately. However, the reduction in refinery supply and the expected improvement in consumption in the peak season will support zinc prices, which are expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short - term [11]. Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated strongly. In September, the supply of lead has decreased, and social inventory has declined slightly, supporting lead prices. However, the lack of significant improvement in consumption and high LME inventory mean that lead prices will mainly fluctuate in the short - term [12]. Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated strongly. The slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, transportation problems, and low raw material inventory in refineries have affected production. Although consumption is weak, the significant reduction in inventory is beneficial to tin prices, which are expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short - term [13][14]. Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, lithium carbonate fluctuated weakly. The raw material prices have declined, and the market is in a state of long - short game. The short - term lithium price is still dominated by sentiment and is expected to fluctuate widely [15]. Nickel - On Monday, nickel prices fluctuated. The supply of nickel ore is increasing steadily, but high - quality nickel ore in China is in short supply. The spot market for pure nickel has cooled down, and there is no clear short - term guidance for the nickel market, so it is expected to fluctuate [16]. Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil fluctuated strongly. The deadlock in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the divergence between OPEC and EIA's expectations for the oil market have increased market volatility. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short - term [17][18]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Monday, steel futures fluctuated. Shanghai's real estate policy has released positive signals, but the construction demand is weak, and the hot - rolled coil demand benefits from export resilience. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season in September [19]. Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures fluctuated strongly. The reduction in overseas shipments and arrivals has relieved supply pressure, and the high - level iron - making output of sample steel mills has supported demand. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the impact of policy - based production restrictions [20]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the soybean meal contract rose, and the rapeseed meal contract slightly declined. The US soybean's good rate is higher than expected, and the weather in the US soybean - producing area in the next two weeks may affect yields. Domestic oil mills have a high operating rate, and the supply is sufficient. Short - term soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate within a range [21][22]. Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil contract rose. The export growth rate of Malaysian palm oil has narrowed, and the domestic soybean crushing rate is high, with an increase in soybean oil inventory and a decrease in palm oil and rapeseed oil inventory. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short - term [23][24]. Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and other data of various metal futures contracts on August 25, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, precious metals, etc. [25] Industrial Data Perspective - The report presents detailed industrial data of various metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, etc., including futures prices, spot prices, inventory changes, and other information from August 22 to August 25 [27][30][32]