新世纪期货交易提示（2025-8-26）-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating strongly [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - Shanghai 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - Gold: Oscillating strongly [4] - Silver: Oscillating strongly [4] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Range - bound [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating bullishly [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating bullishly [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating bullishly [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating weakly [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating weakly [7] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term manufacturing recovery has been interrupted, and the Politburo meeting fell short of expectations, but Powell's signal of interest rate cuts has supported commodities. The market is affected by various factors such as policy, supply and demand, and market sentiment, and different varieties show different trends [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The short - term manufacturing recovery was interrupted, and the Politburo meeting was disappointing, but Powell's signal of interest rate cuts supported commodities. The expectation of domestic blast furnace production restrictions was falsified, and the impact on iron ore demand was small. The global iron ore shipment increased, and the arrival volume also rebounded, but there was no obvious inventory accumulation pressure. Terminal demand was weak, and steel mills had little motivation to cut production actively. It is expected to oscillate [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Affected by the coal mine accident in Fujian and the initial success of anti - involution, the night trading of coking coal and coke rose sharply. The overall recovery of coal mines was slow, and the inventory of clean coal in coal mines reached the lowest level since March 2024. Downstream enterprises maintained high - level operations, and coal prices were supported in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips after the market sentiment is released [2]. - Rolled steel and rebar: The production restriction policy of Tangshan steel mills was clear, but the production reduction was less than expected. Building material demand declined, and total demand was difficult to show an anti - seasonal performance. The supply was expected to shrink during the military parade, but the contradiction between supply and demand in the steel market intensified. The spot demand for rebar was weak, and the futures price was expected to adjust downward to find support [2]. - Glass: The market sentiment cooled, and the downstream was in the stage of digesting inventory. The supply and demand pattern did not improve significantly. There was no change in the production line, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The possibility of glass factory shutdown during the military parade was low. The downstream inventory was low, but the rigid demand had not recovered. In the long term, glass demand was difficult to rise significantly [2]. - Soda ash: The short - term spot was weak, and the futures price followed the macro - driven rise. The improvement of real demand needs to be concerned [2]. Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index rose 2.08%, the Shanghai 50 Index rose 2.09%, the CSI 500 Index rose 1.89%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.56%. Funds flowed into the precious metals and power generation equipment sectors and out of the daily chemical and water service sectors. The market sentiment was bullish, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indexes [2][4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond declined, and the central bank carried out reverse repurchase and MLF operations. The market interest rate fluctuated, and the trend of Treasury bonds was weak. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. - Precious metals: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional real - interest - rate - centered to the central - bank - gold - purchase - centered. The currency, financial, and risk - aversion attributes of gold are affected by various factors such as the US debt problem, interest rate policy, and geopolitical risks. The short - term interest - rate cut expectation supported the price of gold, and it is expected to oscillate strongly. The PCE data on Friday needs to be concerned [4]. Light Industry - Pulp: The spot market price was stable, and the cost support for pulp prices weakened. The profitability of the paper industry was low, and the demand was in the off - season. The pulp market presented a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to consolidate [6]. - Logs: The daily shipment volume of logs at the port increased, and the supply pressure was not large. The inventory decreased, and the spot market price was stable. The cost support was enhanced. The fundamentals had few contradictions, and it is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. Oil and Fat Industry - Oils and fats: Affected by strong export sales and the decision of the US EPA on biofuel exemptions, the demand for soybean oil was promising. The production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased, but the inventory was lower than expected, and the export demand was strong. The domestic import of soybeans remained high, and the inventory situation of different oils was different. The demand for double - festival stocking recovered, and it is expected to oscillate bullishly [6]. - Meal products: The USDA significantly reduced the planting area of soybeans, and the inventory of US soybeans decreased. The weather in the US soybean - producing area was favorable for growth, but the weather in the next month was still crucial. The anti - dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed increased the cost, and the supply was worried. The domestic soybean arrival volume was high, and the soybean meal inventory was abundant. It is expected to oscillate [6]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs continued to decline. The supply increased, and the demand was restricted by high - temperature weather. The price of live pigs was expected to oscillate [7]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: The impact of weather on the main rubber - producing areas weakened, but the geopolitical conflict still had a small impact. The raw material supply was tight, and the purchase price was high. The utilization rate of tire enterprises' production capacity showed different trends, and the inventory at Qingdao Port decreased. The supply - demand gap narrowed, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term [9]. - PX: Geopolitical instability made the oil price direction unclear. The PTA load weakened, and the polyester load rebounded. The short - term supply and demand of PX were slightly weaker but still tight, and the price was strong [9]. - PTA: The oil price fluctuated greatly, and the cost support was general. The supply decreased, and the demand improved. The price followed the cost fluctuation [9]. - MEG: The port inventory decreased, and the subsequent arrival volume was lower than expected. The terminal demand improved slightly, and the supply pressure increased. The medium - term supply and demand were expected to be in a wide - balance state. The low inventory supported the price [9]. - PR: The supply - demand expectation of polyester bottle chips was weak, but the oil price was strong, and the cost supported the price to oscillate [9]. - PF: The supply - demand side of polyester staple fiber lacked positive factors, but the overnight oil price increase and the strong raw material side were expected to continue, and the price was expected to sort out warmly [9].