中辉有色观点-20250826

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is recommended for short - term observation and long - term strategic allocation. Silver is recommended for rebound buying. Copper is recommended to hold long positions. Zinc is recommended for rebound short - selling. Lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel are expected to have short - term rebounds. Industrial silicon is expected to move in a range, and polysilicon and lithium carbonate are cautiously bullish [1]. - In the short term, gold has limited upward space due to the lack of concentrated risk events, while in the long run, it will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring, with a potential long - term bull market. Silver has an upward trend in the medium - to - long - term [3]. - Copper is expected to be strong during the "Golden September and Silver October" season, with a tight supply - demand balance in the long run. Zinc is under pressure due to weak demand and increased supply. Aluminum prices rebound due to downstream destocking. Nickel prices stabilize and rise due to a warm macro - environment. Lithium carbonate has a de - stocking expectation and is recommended for low - buying [6][10][14][18][22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: With increased rate - cut expectations and slowed trading sentiment, the gold and silver markets are consolidating [2]. - Basic Logic: Overseas markets focus on the Fed's rate - cut expectations. There are concerns about the German economy, increasing European rate - cut expectations. Geopolitical tensions are easing. In the short term, gold has a low probability of breaking through the range, while in the long term, it may be in a long - term bull market [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gold has support around 770 and pay attention to the recent high of 794. Silver has support at 9100 and pay attention to the previous high of 9526. In the long - term, gold and silver will oscillate upwards [4]. Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper oscillates strongly, and London copper resumes trading after a one - day holiday [6]. - Industry Logic: Copper concentrate supply is tight, and refined copper production may decrease marginally due to increased smelting maintenance. It is currently the off - season, but demand is expected to pick up during the peak season, with a tight supply - demand balance in the long run [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold existing long positions in copper and look for opportunities to go long on dips. In the long - term, be bullish on copper. Shanghai copper focuses on the range of [78500, 81000] yuan/ton, and London copper focuses on [9750, 9950] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - Market Review: Shanghai zinc gaps down and moves lower overnight, and London zinc resumes trading after a one - day holiday [10]. - Industry Logic: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025, and demand is weak due to factors such as tariffs and the off - season [10]. - Strategy Recommendation: Zinc is weak and oscillating in the short - term, and maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds in the long - term. Shanghai zinc focuses on the range of [22000, 22600], and London zinc focuses on [2750, 2850] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices rebound, and alumina shows a slight stabilization trend [13]. - Industry Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, there are obvious rate - cut expectations overseas, with a decrease in production costs and a mixed inventory situation. The demand side shows a mild recovery. For alumina, the supply is expected to be loose in the short - term, and attention should be paid to overseas bauxite changes [14]. - Strategy Recommendation: Recommend short - term profit - taking and observation for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the downstream开工 rate. The main operating range is [20000 - 21000] [15]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices stabilize, and stainless steel rebounds from a low level [17]. - Industry Logic: Overseas macro - sentiment is warm. Nickel ore prices are weak, and refined nickel production increases with inventory accumulation. Stainless steel's destocking effect is weakening, and it still faces pressure in the off - season [18]. - Strategy Recommendation: Recommend profit - taking and observation for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 123000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2511 opens high and closes low with a slight increase in positions, closing down 0.3% [21]. - Industry Logic: Supply increases slightly, and demand is picking up as the peak season approaches. Total inventory has declined for two consecutive weeks, and there is still a de - stocking expectation [22]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average in the range of [79000 - 81000] [23].