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国新国证期货早报-20250826
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo·2025-08-26 01:46

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - On August 25, A-share indices showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten - year high, and the trading volume of the two markets exceeded 3 trillion yuan for the second time in history [1] - Futures of various commodities have different trends and influencing factors, such as the upward trend of stock index futures, the shock of coke and coking coal futures, the small rise of Zheng sugar futures, etc [1][2] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On August 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.51% to 3883.56 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.26% to 12441.07 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 3% to 2762.99 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 3141.1 billion yuan, a significant increase of 594.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4469.22, a rise of 91.22 [1] Coke and Coking Coal - On August 25, the coke weighted index trended stronger with a closing price of 1732.1, a rise of 69.6; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated widely, closing at 1208.8 yuan, a rise of 73.0. From January - July 2025, global crude steel production was 1.0862 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%. The current molten iron output is 240.75 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 23 yuan/ton. The coking coal inventory is increasing overall [1] Coking Coal - Tangshan Mongolian 5 refined coal is reported at 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the disk. Fed Chairman Powell expressed an open attitude towards interest rate cuts on August 22. The mine - end inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing, and the refined coal inventory is shifting downstream. The cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and the inventory level is moderately high [2] Zheng Sugar - Affected by factors such as the rebound of US sugar and the rise of crude oil prices, the Zheng Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated slightly higher on August 25, and closed slightly lower at night [2] Rubber - Affected by bad weather in Southeast Asia and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the Shanghai rubber futures rose on August 25 and closed slightly higher at night. Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 7 months were 2.572 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%, and exports to China were 1.603 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29% [3] Palm Oil - On August 25, palm oil futures fluctuated slightly in the high - level range. As of August 22, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions decreased by 5.70% week - on - week and 2.65% year - on - year. Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 increased by 16.4% month - on - month [3][5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures closed down on August 25. The US soybean harvest is expected to be good, and Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to be 176.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. Domestically, the M2601 contract rose 0.94% to 3117 yuan/ton. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is accumulating. The purchase of US soybeans and the possible auction of state - reserve soybeans limit the increase of soybean meal [5] Live Pigs - On August 25, the LH2511 contract rose 0.51% to 13940 yuan/ton. The supply pressure has decreased slightly, and the demand is expected to improve with the approaching of the school season and holidays, but the actual recovery is restricted by multiple factors. Live pigs may show a wide - range shock trend [6] Shanghai Copper - Driven by the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the decline of domestic refined copper inventory, copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [6] Logs - The 2511 contract of logs opened at 819.5 on August 25, with a low of 812.5, a high of 822, and closed at 820, with an increase of 204 lots. The external price increase drives the domestic futures price up. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradiction, and the spot trading is weak [6][7] Cotton - The main contract of Zheng Cotton closed at 14145 yuan/ton at night on August 25. The cotton inventory decreased by 94 lots compared with the previous trading day [7] Steel - On August 25, rb2510 closed at 3138 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3389 yuan/ton. The black - series futures fluctuated in the positive range. The production capacity utilization rate in East and North China decreased, and the raw material price increased slightly. The downstream is waiting and watching, and the market transactions are mainly low - price resources [7] Alumina - On August 25, ao2601 closed at 3184 yuan/ton. The fundamentals are weak due to over - capacity, but short - term deep decline is restricted. It is expected to show wide - range fluctuations, and long - term weakness may occur without interference [8][9] Shanghai Aluminum - On August 25, al2510 closed at 20770 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is favorable, but the supply is normal, the inventory is high, the demand is weak, and the trading atmosphere is dull [9]