生猪：现货表现不及预期，逢高做空

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The spot performance of live pigs is below expectations, and it is recommended to sell short on rallies [1] - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [3] - In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increases, retail farmers are forced to hold pigs, demand growth is limited, and the market supply is difficult to digest. The spot performance has repeatedly fallen short of expectations. The policy of state reserve purchases has been implemented, but supply pressure usually requires multiple rounds of purchases to ease. The September contract is still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver is increasing. The price premium correction continues. The purchase sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the slaughter cost in March. Attention should be paid to the downward - moving driver of the far - end price center, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: Henan's live - pig spot price is 13,780 yuan/ton with a year - on - year change of 0; Sichuan's is 13,550 yuan/ton with a year - on - year change of 0; Guangdong's is 15,140 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 150 yuan/ton [2] - Futures Prices: The price of the live - pig 2509 contract is 13,795 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 35; the 2511 contract is 13,910 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 70; the 2601 contract is 14,240 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 95 [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the live - pig 2509 contract is 1,861 lots, a decrease of 478 from the previous day, and the open interest is 9,733 lots, a decrease of 1,090 from the previous day; the 2511 contract has a trading volume of 29,558 lots, a decrease of 7,223, and an open interest of 70,029 lots, a decrease of 3,231; the 2601 contract has a trading volume of 11,414 lots, a decrease of 917, and an open interest of 48,013 lots, a decrease of 174 [2] - Price Spreads: The basis of the live - pig 2509 contract is - 15 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35; the 2511 contract's basis is - 130 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 70; the 2601 contract's basis is - 460 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 95; the 9 - 11 spread is - 115 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 35; the 11 - 1 spread is - 330 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 25 [2] 2. Trend Strength - The trend strength is 0, with the value range being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong, where -2 indicates the most bearish view and 2 indicates the most bullish view [3] 3. Market Logic - In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increases, retail farmers are forced to hold pigs, demand growth is limited, and the market supply is difficult to digest. The spot performance has repeatedly fallen short of expectations. The policy of state reserve purchases has been implemented, but supply pressure usually requires multiple rounds of purchases to ease. The September contract is still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver is increasing. The price premium correction continues. The purchase sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the slaughter cost in March. Attention should be paid to the downward - moving driver of the far - end price center, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,000 yuan/ton [4]