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中辉期货原油日报-20250826
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-26 01:53
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously Bearish: Crude oil, asphalt [1][4] - Cautiously Bullish: LPG (take profit on long positions), L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea [1][2] - Bullish: Glass, soda ash [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: Geopolitical risks lead to a short - term rebound in oil prices, but the pressure of oversupply is increasing, and the oil price trend remains downward. Suggest buying put options and shorting with a light position [1]. - LPG: Valuation is restored, downstream开工 rate drops. Be vigilant about the weakening of the cost - end oil price and take profit on long positions [1]. - L: Cost support improves, futures and spot prices rise together, and the basis weakens. The peak season starts slowly, and social inventory turns from falling to rising. Suggest buying on dips [1]. - PP: The oil price stabilizes and rebounds, and the chemical sector continues the optimistic sentiment. The supply is still under pressure in the future, but the absolute price is low with support at the bottom. Suggest short - term buying on dips [1]. - PVC: The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke rise, and the cost support improves. Although the inventory is accumulating, the further decline space of the disk is limited. Suggest short - term long positions [1]. - PX: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to be loose, but the macro - policy bullish expectation is fulfilled. Short - term PX fluctuates strongly. Suggest holding long positions and selling put options [1]. - PTA: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, while the demand shows signs of recovery. There are opportunities to go long at low levels. Suggest holding long positions and selling put options [2]. - MEG: Domestic and overseas supply changes are small, demand is expected to improve, inventory is low, and cost support exists. Suggest holding long positions and buying on dips [2]. - Methanol: The supply - side pressure increases, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. Do not chase the rise, and focus on buying 01 contracts on dips and selling put options on 01 contracts [2]. - Urea: The fundamentals are weak, but there is cost support and export expectations. 01 long positions can be held cautiously, and call options can be sold [2]. - Asphalt: The oil price has room to compress, and the asphalt is under pressure above. Suggest shorting with a light position [4]. - Glass: The supply is under pressure, demand support is insufficient, and the inventory increases. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Soda Ash: The supply remains high, demand is mostly rigid, and the inventory accumulates. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices stabilized and rebounded. WTI rose 1.79%, Brent rose 1.49%, and SC rose 0.51% [5]. - Basic Logic: Geopolitical factors boost oil prices in the short term, but in the medium - and long - term, the support from the peak season weakens, and the pressure from OPEC+ production increase rises. The oil price may be pressed to around $60 [6]. - Fundamentals: Libya plans to increase production, India's oil imports decline, and US commercial crude inventories decrease [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the break - even point of shale oil new drilling around $60. Buy put options and short with a light position. Pay attention to the range of SC [480 - 500] [8]. LPG - Market Review: On August 25, the PG main contract closed at 4420 yuan/ton, up 0.64% month - on - month [10]. - Basic Logic: The cost - end oil price rebounds, the valuation is restored, and the main contract basis is at a normal level. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the trend mainly follows the oil price [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: Be vigilant about the weakening of the cost - end oil price and take profit on long positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4400 - 4500] [12]. L - Market Review: The L2601 contract closed at 7423 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan day - on - day [16]. - Basic Logic: Cost support improves, the peak season starts slowly, and social inventory turns from falling to rising. The demand side is strengthening, and there is an expectation of fundamental improvement [16]. - Strategy Recommendation: Buy on dips. Pay attention to the range of L [7300 - 7500] [16] PP - Market Review: The PP2601 contract closed at 7074 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan day - on - day [20]. - Basic Logic: The oil price rebounds, the chemical sector is optimistic, but the supply is under pressure. The demand in the peak season starts, and the inventory at high levels drops. The supply - demand is loose in the medium - term, but the bottom is supported [21]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term buying on dips. Pay attention to the range of PP [7000 - 7200] [21] PVC - Market Review: The V2601 contract closed at 5019 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan day - on - day [25]. - Basic Logic: The prices of calcium carbide and semi - coke rise, the cost support improves. The supply is expected to increase, and the inventory accumulates. The further decline space of the disk is limited [26]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term long positions. Pay attention to the range of V [4950 - 5100] [26] PX - Market Review: On August 22, the PX spot price was 7014 (+125) yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6966 (+8) yuan/ton [29]. - Basic Logic: The supply - side devices are slightly increasing production, the demand - side PTA device maintenance increases, and the supply - demand tight balance is expected to be loose. The PXN is not low, and short - term PX fluctuates strongly [30]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions, pay attention to buying opportunities on dips, and sell put options. Pay attention to the range of PX511 [6950 - 7050] [31] PTA - Market Review: On August 22, the PTA spot price in East China was 4865 (+35) yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4868 (+8) yuan/ton [33]. - Basic Logic: The supply - side device maintenance increases, the demand shows signs of recovery, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the demand is expected to improve [34]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions, sell put options, and pay attention to buying opportunities on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA01 [4840 - 4920] [35] MEG - Market Review: On August 22, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4512 (-6) yuan/ton, and the EG01 contract closed at 4474 (+1) yuan/ton [37]. - Basic Logic: Domestic devices slightly increase production, overseas devices change little, and the arrival and import are at low levels. The demand is expected to improve, and the inventory is low. The cost support exists [38]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions and pay attention to buying opportunities on dips. Pay attention to the range of EG01 [4500 - 4550] [39] Methanol - Market Review: On August 22, the methanol spot price in East China was 2320 (-12) yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2405 (-20) yuan/ton [40]. - Basic Logic: The supply - side pressure increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. The cost is supported by coal [41]. - Strategy Recommendation: Do not chase the rise, focus on buying 01 contracts on dips, and sell put options on 01 contracts. Pay attention to the range of MA01 [2390 - 2440] [42] Urea - Market Review: On August 22, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1740 (-20) yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1739 (-25) yuan/ton [44]. - Basic Logic: The supply is expected to be loose, the domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. The cost support exists, and the price fluctuates in a range [45]. - Strategy Recommendation: Cautiously hold 01 long positions, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of UR01 [1735 - 1765] [46] Asphalt - Basic Logic: The cost - end oil price is under pressure, the supply increases, and the demand decreases. The valuation is high [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short with a light position [4] Glass - Basic Logic: The supply is under pressure, the demand support is insufficient, and the inventory increases [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: Wait and see [4] Soda Ash - Basic Logic: The supply remains high, the demand is mostly rigid, and the inventory accumulates [4]. - Strategy Recommendation: Wait and see [4]