Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on government bonds, recommended to hold off [1][6] - Black Building Materials: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bearish on glass, recommended to take a short position on the 09 contract [1][8][9] - Non - ferrous Metals: Neutral on copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver, recommended for range trading or waiting for opportunities; recommended to buy aluminum on dips [1][11][12][13] - Energy and Chemicals: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins, recommended for range trading; bearish on soda ash for the 09 contract, recommended to hold short positions [1][20][22][25][31] - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Bullish on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for long - term investment; neutral on apples and jujubes, recommended for range trading [1][34][35][36] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for range trading; bullish on oils, recommended to go long on dips [1][37][39][40][42][45] Core Views The stock market is in the second stage of a bull market, with expected incremental capital inflows. The bond market may see a short - term repair if the stock market corrects. In the black building materials sector, supply and demand are relatively balanced, with prices expected to fluctuate. Non - ferrous metal prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand and macro - policies, and are expected to remain volatile. Energy and chemical product prices are influenced by supply, demand, and cost factors, with a weakening supply - demand relationship for some products. In the cotton and textile industry, global supply and demand are improving, and prices are expected to be strong. In the agriculture and animal husbandry sector, supply and demand vary by product, with some facing supply pressure and others showing signs of improvement [6][8][11][20][34][37] Summary by Catalog Macro Finance - Stock Indices: The three major indices continued their strong performance. The market is in the second stage of a bull market, with incremental capital expected. Short - term market tops are difficult to predict, and investors should maintain positions and make appropriate adjustments. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips [6] - Government Bonds: The bond market started a repair on Monday, breaking through the lower limit of the previous trading range. There is a greater probability that stocks and bonds will follow their own trends in the short term, but the relationship between them is not completely decoupled. The recommended strategy is to hold off [6] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal and Coke: On August 25, the spot market entered a calm period, with upstream inventory rising and downstream inventory gradually decreasing. Supply recovery was slower than expected, and the overall inventory was healthy. The recommended strategy is range trading, with JM2601 focusing on the range of 1110 - 1250 and J2601 on 1610 - 1780 [8] - Rebar: On Monday, the rebar futures price rose and then fell. Fundamentally, demand increased slightly, production decreased, and inventory increased. The price is near the electric furnace cost, with a neutral - low valuation. The recommended strategy is range trading, with RB2510 focusing on the range of 3100 - 3200 [8] - Glass: Supply remained stable last week, with high upstream inventory. Demand improved slightly, but the high inventory still suppressed prices. The near - term contract is expected to decline slightly, and the recommended strategy is to take a short position on the 09 contract and wait and see for the 01 contract [9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: This week, copper prices remained stable, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range. The dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting and domestic policies will support copper prices. Supply has increased, but demand has not shown a turning point. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the short - term operating range of Shanghai copper at 78500 - 79500 yuan/ton [11][12] - Aluminum: The price of bauxite in Guinea has increased, and the production and transportation of bauxite have been affected by the rainy season. The operating capacity of alumina has decreased slightly, and the inventory has increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and downstream demand is in the off - peak to peak season transition period. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips [12][13] - Nickel: The release of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia has led to a slight decline in the price of nickel ore. The refined nickel market is in a surplus, and the price of nickel iron is stable. The price of stainless steel is expected to be strong, and the price of nickel sulfate is stable. The recommended strategy is to short on rallies [16] - Tin: In July, domestic refined tin production increased, and imports decreased. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and inventory has decreased. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the operating range of Shanghai tin 09 contract at 259,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton [16] - Silver and Gold: Powell's dovish speech has increased the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut. The trade negotiation results have reduced the market's concern about tariffs. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips after price corrections, with the operating range of Shanghai silver 10 contract at 8900 - 9600 and Shanghai gold 10 contract at 765 - 810 [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: On August 25, the PVC price was stable. High supply continues, and demand is mainly from soft products and new industries. Exports are facing challenges, and inventory is high. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the 01 contract focusing on the range of 4900 - 5100 [20] - Caustic Soda: On August 25, the caustic soda price was stable. The macro - environment is improving, supply is decreasing, and demand is increasing. The recommended strategy is to go long on dips, with the 01 contract focusing on the support level of 2650 [22] - Styrene: On August 25, the styrene price was stable. The cost is affected by factors such as crude oil and pure benzene. Supply is sufficient, and demand is limited. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the focus on the range of 7100 - 7400 [24][25] - Rubber: On August 25, the rubber price was stable. Supply was affected by typhoons, and inventory was decreasing. However, downstream acceptance of high prices was limited. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the focus on the range of 15200 - 15600 [26] - Urea: The supply of urea is increasing, and the demand is scattered. Inventory is accumulating, and prices are expected to be weak in the short term and then strengthen. The recommended strategy is to pay attention to the price support level of 1680 - 1720 [28][29] - Methanol: The supply of methanol is increasing, and the demand for methanol - to - olefins is stable. Traditional demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to fluctuate [29] - Polyolefins: On August 25, the polyolefin price was stable. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - peak to peak season transition period. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the L2509 contract focusing on the range of 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [30][31] - Soda Ash: The spot market is weak, and the 09 contract is under pressure. The recommended strategy is to hold short positions [31][33] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Global cotton supply and demand are improving, and the macro - environment is favorable. The price is expected to be strong [34] - Apples: The early - maturing apple market is in a state of polarization, and the price of stored apples is stable. The price is expected to remain high and fluctuate [35] - Jujubes: The jujube market is in the growth period, and the price is expected to fluctuate upward [36] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: The spot price of pigs is weak, and the supply pressure is large in the fourth quarter. The recommended strategy is to short on rallies, with the 11 contract pressure level at 14200 - 14500 and the 01 contract at 14500 - 14700. Also, pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38][39] - Eggs: The egg price is weak in the peak season, and the supply pressure is gradually relieved. The recommended strategy is to short on rallies for the 10 contract, and there may be opportunities to go long on dips for the 12 and 01 contracts if the elimination process accelerates [39] - Corn: The new corn is about to be listed, and the supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be weak, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies for the 11 contract or hold the 11 - 1 reverse spread [40][41] - Soybean Meal: The arrival of soybeans in September - October is sufficient, and the price is under pressure. However, cost support limits the decline. The recommended strategy is range trading, with the range of 3080 - 3200 [42][44] - Oils: The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to remain high and fluctuate. The recommended strategy is to go long on dips or use a rolling long strategy. Also, pay attention to the long palm oil 1 - 5 spread strategy [45][52][53]
长江期货市场交易指引-20250826
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-08-26 02:11