20250826申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250826

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range in the short term due to the intersection of bullish and bearish factors such as tight concentrate supply, high smelting output growth, and mixed downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may experience wide - range fluctuations and tend to be weak in the short term as short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards oversupply [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. The power industry shows positive growth, with a sharp year - on - year increase in PV rush installations (future growth may slow), automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market remains weak [2]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 79,690 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 110 yuan/ton, the LME 3 - month closing price was 9,797 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 78.38 dollars/ton, and the LME inventory was 156,350 tons with no daily change [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally recovered, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly according to the China Iron and Steel Association. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate market remains weak [2]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 22,375 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 75 yuan/ton, the LME 3 - month closing price was 2,806 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 2.95 dollars/ton, and the LME inventory was 69,375 tons with a daily decrease of 1,875 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 20,785 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 10 yuan/ton, the LME 3 - month closing price was 2,622 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 2.07 dollars/ton, and the LME inventory was 479,525 tons with no daily change [2]. - Nickel: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 120,070 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,500 yuan/ton, the LME 3 - month closing price was 15,100 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 175.83 dollars/ton, and the LME inventory was 209,598 tons with a daily increase of 252 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 16,845 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 160 yuan/ton, the LME 3 - month closing price was 1,995 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 33.79 dollars/ton, and the LME inventory was 279,600 tons with a daily decrease of 1,500 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 269,570 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,090 yuan/ton, the LME 3 - month closing price was 33,845 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 50.00 dollars/ton, and the LME inventory was 1,740 tons with a daily increase of 25 tons [2].