申万期货品种策略日报：贵金属-20250826

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Gold and silver rebounded. At the Jackson Hole meeting last week, Powell's statement was considered a dovish stance, enhancing the expectation of a rate cut in September. The rebound of US inflation data in July and positive signals from US - Russia negotiations reduced geopolitical risks, putting pressure on gold and silver. The non - farm payrolls data in July was worse than expected and the previous value was significantly revised down. The Fed's internal views are divided, and Trump's personnel appointments affect market expectations of the Fed. Although there are multi - party progress in trade negotiations, the overall trade environment is still deteriorating. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill continues to boost the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold holdings. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, and currently, gold and silver may show a relatively strong trend as the expectation of a rate cut rises [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The current prices of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 779.92 and 782.32 respectively, with daily increases of 0.74 (0.09%) and 0.84 (0.11%). The current prices of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 9348.00 and 9371.00 respectively, with daily decreases of 46.00 (-0.49%) and 43.00 (-0.46%) [2] - Position and Volume: The positions of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 180151 and 140282 respectively, and the trading volumes are 226253 and 52290 respectively. The positions of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 322774 and 240493 respectively, and the trading volumes are 631045 and 145892 respectively [2] - Spot Premium and Discount: The spot premium and discount of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are - 4.58 and - 6.98 respectively, and that of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 16.00 and - 7.00 respectively [2] Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold are 775.34 and 774.20 respectively, with daily changes of 3.71 (0.48%) and - 2.57 (-0.33%). The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Silver T + D and London Silver are 9364.00 and 38.56 respectively, with daily changes of 182.00 (1.98%) and - 0.33 (-0.85%) [2] - Price Ratios: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2510,沪银2512 - 沪银2510, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver are 2.40, 23, 82.80, 7.17, and 7.55 respectively, compared with previous values of 2.30, 20, 84.04, 7.12, and 7.34 [2] Inventory - Domestic and Overseas Inventories: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold is 37,515 kg (an increase of 60.00 kg), and the silver inventory is 1,113,641 kg (an increase of 4,518.00 kg). The current COMEX gold inventory is 38,563,780 ounces (a decrease of 32.15 ounces), and the silver inventory is 508,783,339 ounces (an increase of 296409 ounces) [2] Relevant Market Indicators - Macroeconomic Indicators: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 98.4262, 6439.32, 4.28, 68.2, and 7.1581 respectively, with changes of 0.72%, - 0.43%, 0.47%, 0.01%, and - 0.18% compared with the previous values [2] - Derivative Product Positions: The current positions of the SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons (an increase of 1.00 ton). The current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively, with changes of 481 and - 1451 compared with the previous values [2] 4. Macroeconomic News - Trump met with South Korea's President Lee Jae - myung at the White House. Trump said he doesn't mind renegotiating the trade agreement with South Korea and is considering ordering some ships from South Korea [2] - The Trump administration outlined a plan to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products, targeting products entering the consumer market or being withdrawn from warehouses after 12:01 am Eastern Daylight Time on August 27, 2025 [2] - The US added minerals such as copper and potash to the 2025 critical minerals list. The draft list has been published in the Federal Register for a 30 - day public comment period [2] - In July, the annualized sales volume of new homes in the US decreased by 0.6% to 652,000 units, exceeding the market expectation of 630,000 units. The median price of new homes decreased by 5.9% year - on - year to $403,800 [3]