申银万国期货首席点评：促消费进行时

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue, but it is necessary to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation [2][10]. - With the loosening of market liquidity, the price of treasury bond futures has stabilized, but beware of the suppression of the bond market sentiment by the stock - bond seesaw effect [11]. - The overall trend of precious metals may be strong under the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [3][18]. - The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the interweaving of multiple factors [3][19]. Summary by Directory 1. Main News Concerns of the Day International News - The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products starting from August 27, 2025 [4]. Domestic News - The Hong Kong Treasury Bureau Chief reminded the public to be cautious about stablecoins, which are positioned as payment tools with a lower cost compared to bank payments [6]. - Shanghai introduced a series of real - estate new policies, including relaxed purchase restrictions, increased housing provident fund loan limits, and adjusted mortgage interest rates and property tax policies [1][7]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, London Gold, London Silver, etc. declined, while the FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, etc. rose on August 25 compared to August 24 [8]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - Stock Index: The domestic market has favorable factors such as loose liquidity, policy support, and easing external risks. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [2][10]. - Treasury Bonds: The price of treasury bond futures has stabilized with the loosening of market funds, but the strong equity market may suppress the bond market [11]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The sc night - session rose. A Russian refinery was attacked, and OPEC+ may discuss further production increases in September. Pay attention to OPEC's production increase [12]. - Methanol: The coastal methanol inventory has increased significantly. The short - term trend is mainly bullish [13]. - Rubber: Affected by typhoons and the rainy season, the supply side provides support, while the demand side is weak. The short - term trend is expected to stop falling and rebound [14]. - Polyolefins: The futures prices rebounded slightly. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand, and pay attention to the autumn restocking market [15][16]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The prices of glass and soda ash futures stopped falling. Pay attention to the autumn consumption to help digest inventory [17]. Metals - Precious Metals: The expectation of interest rate cuts in September has increased, and the overall trend of precious metals may be strong [3][18]. - Copper: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the tight concentrate supply and mixed downstream demand [3][19]. - Zinc: The zinc price may fluctuate weakly within a range due to the expected increase in smelting production and mixed downstream demand [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: The short - term price is affected by sentiment. If the inventory starts to decline, the lithium price may rise further [21][22]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: The demand for iron ore is supported, but the medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The later trend is expected to be oscillating and bullish [23]. - Steel: The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant for the time being. The short - term adjustment is expected, and the later trend is expected to be oscillating and bullish [24]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The short - term trend is in a wide - range oscillation due to the game between multiple factors [25]. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The short - term adjustment of domestic soybean meal is weak, but it is expected to be relatively strong in the long - term [26]. - Oils and Fats: The short - term trend of oils and fats is expected to be oscillating [27][28]. - Sugar: The domestic and international sugar markets are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [29]. - Cotton: The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be oscillating and bullish, but the upside space is limited [30]. Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The freight rate of the European line is in a downward trend, and the short - term is expected to continue the phased decline [31].