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中国期货每日简报-20250826
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-26 02:34

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - On August 25, equity indices and CGB futures rose, and most commodity futures increased, with coking coal and coke leading the gains [2][11][13] - Shanghai issued new property market policies, and the CSRC strengthened supervision over futures companies' internet marketing activities [39][40] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On August 25, equity indices and CGB futures rose; most commodity futures gained ground, with coking coal and coke leading the gains. The top three gainers were coking coal (up 6.5% with open interest up 3.1% month - on - month), fuel oil (up 5.1% with open interest up 4.5% month - on - month), and coke (up 4.4% with open interest up 6.2% month - on - month). The top three decliners were rapeseed (down 0.3% with open interest down 5.0% month - on - month), lithium carbonate (down 0.3% with open interest up 1.8% month - on - month), and polyester staple fiber (down 0.3% with open interest down 2.8% month - on - month) [11][12][13] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Coking Coal - On August 25, coking coal increased by 6.5% to 1215.5 yuan/ton. Supported by slow supply recovery and rigid demand from coking enterprises, the short - term futures market has support. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of major coal mine accidents [17][20][21] - Supply: Some coal mines in main production areas resumed operations, but new ones suspended or reduced production in some areas. Imported coal customs clearance at Ganqimaodu Port increased. Demand: Coke output was stable with a slight increase, and coking enterprises procured based on demand. Upstream coal mines started to accumulate inventories slightly [18][19][21] 1.2.2 Coke - On August 25, coke increased by 4.4% to 1736 yuan/ton. With military parade - related production restriction expectations, the supply - demand tight situation may continue, and the futures market has support from rigid demand and production restriction expectations [26][28][29] - Supply: The seventh round of price increases was implemented, coking enterprise profits rebounded, and output picked up, but supply increase was limited due to high costs. Demand: Steel mills had good profits, steel exports improved, and the rigid demand for coke was strong. Inventory: Steel mills actively purchased, and coking enterprise inventories dropped to a low level and then slightly accumulated [27][28][29] 1.2.3 Fuel Oil - On August 25, fuel oil increased by 5.1% to 2907 yuan/ton. The reasons were Ukraine's attacks and US sanctions on Chinese companies, leading to the resurgence of the geopolitical premium for fuel oil. In the short - term, it performed strongly, and the bitumen - fuel oil price spread fell rapidly. In the context of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, it may be strong in the near term but weak in the long term [32][33][34] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Shanghai issued the "Notice on Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Real Estate Policy Measures" on August 25, including policies on housing purchase restrictions, housing provident fund, credit, and property tax, effective from August 26, 2025 [39][40] - The Shanghai Head Office of the People's Bank of China adjusted the pricing mechanism for commercial personal housing loan interest rates in Shanghai on August 25, no longer differentiating between first - home and second - home loans [39][40] - Premier Li Qiang listened to the report on the implementation of policies for large - scale equipment upgrading and consumer goods trade - in on August 22, emphasizing strengthening coordination, cracking down on fraud, and releasing domestic demand potential [39][40] 2.2 Industry News - On August 22, the CSRC issued the "Interim Provisions on the Administration of Internet Marketing by Futures Companies", strengthening the whole - process supervision over futures companies' internet marketing activities [40]