美元指数偏弱提振，基本金属获得支撑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry. However, individual metal outlooks are provided, including "oscillation" for copper, aluminum, lead, and nickel; "oscillation under pressure" for alumina; "oscillation with a downward bias" for zinc; and "oscillation with potential upward volatility" for tin. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall Non-Ferrous Metals: The weakening US dollar index provides support for base metals. In the short to medium term, the weak dollar supports prices, but the weak demand outlook means the potential for inventory reduction in the September peak season is uncertain. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support prices [1]. - Copper: Powell's dovish remarks boost copper prices, which are expected to oscillate at a high level. Supply constraints and low inventory support prices, but weakening demand and US tariffs on copper may limit upside [4][5]. - Alumina: Spot prices are weak and stable, and increasing warehouse receipts put pressure on prices. The market is expected to oscillate with a downward bias due to overcapacity and inventory accumulation [5][9]. - Aluminum: Macro sentiment boosts prices, which are expected to oscillate. Supply capacity is increasing, and demand is showing signs of improvement, but the inventory reduction trend needs confirmation [9][10]. - Aluminum Alloy: Strong cost support keeps prices oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply - demand balance is weak, but there is potential for price spreads to widen [11][14]. - Zinc: Rising expectations of interest rate cuts lead to a small rebound in prices. In the long term, supply is expected to remain in surplus, and prices may decline [14][15]. - Lead: Macro sentiment drives a small rebound in prices. Supply may tighten slightly this week, and demand is recovering, but battery enterprise operating rates and scrap battery prices also affect prices [16][18]. - Nickel: The equity market's strength supports short - term prices, but the market is mainly driven by sentiment, and the fundamental situation is weakening [19][23]. - Stainless Steel: Declining warehouse receipts drive prices up. Attention should be paid to the realization of peak - season demand and cost changes [24]. - Tin: Tight supply supports prices at a high level, but weakening demand in the second half of the year limits upward momentum, and price volatility may increase [24][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - Copper: Powell's dovish speech increases the probability of a Fed rate cut in September, boosting copper prices. Supply constraints remain due to low processing fees and reduced production guidance from some mines. Demand is in the off - season, but low inventory provides short - term support. The price is expected to oscillate [4]. - Alumina: Smelters are profitable, and the operating capacity is at a high level, resulting in an oversupply situation. Inventory accumulation and increasing warehouse receipts put pressure on prices. The price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [5][9]. - Aluminum: The weakening US dollar and potential domestic stimulus policies affect prices. Supply capacity is increasing, and demand is expected to improve with the approaching peak season, but the inventory reduction trend needs confirmation. The price is expected to oscillate [9][10]. - Aluminum Alloy: The short - term supply - demand balance is weak. Cost support is strong as scrap aluminum prices follow aluminum ingots. The price is expected to oscillate, and there is potential for price spreads to widen [11][14]. - Zinc: Rising expectations of interest rate cuts lead to a small rebound in prices. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. In the long term, supply is expected to remain in surplus, and prices may decline [14][15]. - Lead: Macro sentiment drives a small rebound in prices. Supply may tighten due to production cuts and transportation restrictions, and demand is recovering as some battery factories resume production. The price is expected to oscillate [16][18]. - Nickel: The equity market's strength supports short - term prices, but the market is mainly driven by sentiment. The fundamental situation is weakening, with potential for looser raw material supply and increasing intermediate product output. The price is expected to oscillate [19][23]. - Stainless Steel: Declining warehouse receipts drive prices up. Attention should be paid to the realization of peak - season demand and cost changes. The price is expected to oscillate [24]. - Tin: Tight supply due to production disruptions in major producing regions supports prices. However, weakening demand in the second half of the year limits upward momentum. The price is expected to oscillate, and volatility may increase [24][25]. 3.2行情监测 The report does not provide specific content for this section.