供应扰动反复叠加资金博弈，新能源金属高位宽幅震荡

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon: Oscillating [5] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [6] - Lithium Carbonate: Oscillating with a Bullish Bias [8][10] Core Views of the Report - The new energy metals market is experiencing wide - amplitude oscillations at high levels due to repeated supply disruptions and capital games. In the short - term, the supply - demand of lithium carbonate may enter a phase of tightness, while silicon faces the risk of looser supply - demand, and cost increases support the prices of new energy metals. In the long - term, the supply of silicon, especially polysilicon, is expected to contract, and the price center may rise, while the high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon Information Analysis - As of August 25, the spot prices of oxygen - fed 553 and 421 industrial silicon in East China were 9350 yuan/ton and 9600 yuan/ton respectively, with price fluctuations [5]. - The latest domestic inventory of industrial silicon was 437,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. Among them, the market inventory was 174,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%, and the factory inventory was 262,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% [5]. - As of July 2025, the monthly output of industrial silicon was 338,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. From January to July, the cumulative production of industrial silicon was 2.21 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% [5]. - In July, the export volume of industrial silicon was 74,006 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 36.7%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 414,711 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% [5]. - In June, the newly - added domestic photovoltaic installed capacity was 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38.45%. From January to June, the cumulative installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07% [5]. Main Logic - The supply of industrial silicon continues to recover. In the southwest region, the resumption of production in silicon plants has accelerated significantly under the combined effect of the wet - season advantage and the rebound of silicon prices. At the end of the month, some large enterprises in Xinjiang resumed production after maintenance, bringing additional increments. In August, the release of southwest production capacity still has a large space, and the overall supply pressure may continue to rise [5]. - The demand has shown some signs of improvement. The resumption of production in polysilicon enterprises has driven the demand for industrial silicon to gradually recover. The organic silicon industry maintains the rhythm of rigid - demand procurement, and some enterprises still have a certain willingness to support prices. The aluminum alloy sector has stable production, with limited incremental support for demand [5]. - With the continuous recovery of supply - side production, social inventory and futures warehouse receipts are expected to further accumulate, and the risk of market pressure needs attention [5]. Outlook - In the short - term, the price of industrial silicon will continue to oscillate under the influence of macro - sentiment and coal prices. If large - scale enterprises resume production intensively, the price may be further suppressed [6]. 2. Polysilicon Information Analysis - According to the data of the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of N - type re - feedstock polysilicon was 45,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 47,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.05% [6]. - The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 6,730 lots, an increase of 190 lots compared with the previous value [6]. - In July, the total export volume of polysilicon in China was about 2,135.42 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 63.14%. From January to July 2025, the total export volume was 13,525.39 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 25.15%. In July, the total import volume of polysilicon was about 1,169.56 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.11%. From January to July 2025, the total import volume was 12,379.34 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.08% [6]. - From January to July 2025, the newly - added domestic photovoltaic installed capacity was 223.25GW, a year - on - year increase of 81%. In 2024, the cumulative newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity from January to December was 278GW, a year - on - year increase of 28% [6]. Main Logic - Macroscopically, the anti - cut - throat competition sentiment has fluctuated. Recently, six departments jointly held a photovoltaic industry symposium, strengthening policy expectations. However, the coal price has dropped recently, resulting in wide - amplitude oscillations in the polysilicon price [6][7]. - From the perspective of supply fundamentals, with the arrival of the wet season, the production capacity in the southwest region has increased. The polysilicon production capacity in Sichuan has rebounded, and it is expected that the polysilicon output will continue to rise in August on the basis of over 100,000 tons currently. In the medium - to - long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - cut - throat competition policies will restrict the supply of polysilicon [8]. - On the demand side, the photovoltaic installation growth rate increased significantly from January to May, with a cumulative growth rate of 150%, but it also over - drafted the installation demand in the second half of the year. The single - month domestic photovoltaic installation in June was only 14GW, and the installation volume in July further decreased. Considering the decline in photovoltaic installation in the second half of the year and the weakening of the demand for battery and component exports, the subsequent demand for polysilicon may continue to weaken [8]. - Overall, there is still pressure on the supply - demand of polysilicon, and the anti - cut - throat competition sentiment has fluctuated, increasing the price volatility of polysilicon [8]. Outlook - The anti - cut - throat competition policy has significantly boosted the polysilicon price. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy. If the policy expectations fade, the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction [8]. 3. Lithium Carbonate Information Analysis - On August 25, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 0.53% to 79,380 yuan compared with the previous day. The total open interest of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 804 lots to 788,716 lots [8]. - On August 25, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,400 yuan to 82,500 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,400 yuan to 80,200 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) on Flush was 910 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 77,100 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. On the same day, the warehouse receipts increased by 640 tons to 25,630 tons [9]. Main Logic - The first - wave emotional impact caused by the shutdown of the Jianxiakeng Mine has ended. The subsequent trading mainly focuses on two points: the manifestation of actual supply - demand shortages and the speculation of possible shutdowns of certain salt lakes and mica mines [9]. - Fundamentally, the supply - demand gap is gradually emerging. The weekly production of SMM has declined month - on - month, especially the production corresponding to mica has declined significantly, but there is some supplement from spodumene. The import of lithium carbonate in China decreased significantly in July, but it will recover in the fourth quarter according to shipping. Currently, the demand has not significantly exceeded expectations, the production schedule in August is relatively stable, and the demand in September, the peak season, is worth looking forward to, with attention focused on the production schedule. The social inventory has slightly decreased, and the warehouse receipts in August are gradually recovering [9]. - Overall, there is a gradually emerging supply - demand gap in the domestic market, but it should be noted that the current high price may stimulate the accelerated release of supply. The trading enthusiasm of capital has decreased, and attention should be paid to the risk of extreme price fluctuations caused by position closing, and opportunities for buying near - month contracts on dips or calendar spreads should be considered [9]. Outlook - The supply - demand gap caused by the shutdown is expected to keep the price oscillating with a bullish bias [10].