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股指期货将偏强震荡,黄金、原油期货将偏强震荡,螺纹钢、铁矿石、玻璃、纯碱、豆粕期货将偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-26 02:43

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools like the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the likely trends of various futures contracts on August 26, 2025, including strong - side oscillations for stock index futures, gold, and crude oil futures, and weak - side oscillations for steel rebar, iron ore, glass, soda ash, and soybean meal futures [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Outlook - Stock Index Futures: Expected to have strong - side oscillations on August 26, 2025. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4550 and 4600 points and support levels at 4475 and 4450 points; IH2509 has resistance at 3040 and 3060 points and support at 2992 and 2975 points; IC2509 has resistance at 7000 and 7100 points and support at 6910 and 6860 points; IM2509 has resistance at 7550 and 7600 points and support at 7412 and 7362 points [2]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 and the thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 are likely to have wide - range oscillations on August 26, 2025. T2512 has support levels at 107.73 and 107.53 yuan and resistance levels at 108.09 and 108.17 yuan; TL2512 has support at 116.1 and 115.6 yuan and resistance at 117.5 and 117.8 yuan [3]. - Precious Metal Futures: The gold futures contract AU2510 is likely to have strong - side oscillations on August 26, 2025, with resistance levels at 781.8 and 786.8 yuan/gram and support levels at 776.8 and 773.8 yuan/gram. The silver futures contract AG2510 is likely to have wide - range oscillations, with support at 9281 and 9205 yuan/kg and resistance at 9404 and 9442 yuan/kg [3]. - Base Metal Futures: Copper futures contract CU2510 is likely to oscillate and consolidate on August 26, 2025, with resistance at 80000 and 80200 yuan/ton and support at 79500 and 79200 yuan/ton. Aluminum futures contract AL2510 is likely to have weak - side oscillations, with support at 20630 and 20600 yuan/ton and resistance at 20770 and 20840 yuan/ton. Alumina futures contract AO2601 is likely to have weak - side oscillations and test support levels at 3139 and 3115 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3216 and 3233 yuan/ton. Zinc futures contract ZN2510 is likely to have weak - side oscillations and test support at 22200 and 22110 yuan/ton, with resistance at 22400 and 22480 yuan/ton. Nickel futures contract NI2510 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance at 120700 and 121200 yuan/ton and support at 120000 and 119500 yuan/ton [3][4]. - Industrial Product Futures: Industrial silicon futures contract SI2511 is likely to have wide - range oscillations on August 26, 2025, with resistance at 8780 and 8910 yuan/ton and support at 8520 and 8440 yuan/ton. Polysilicon futures contract PS2511 is likely to have wide - range oscillations, with support at 51200 and 50200 yuan/ton and resistance at 52200 and 53700 yuan/ton. Lithium carbonate futures contract LC2511 is likely to have wide - range oscillations, with support at 77800 and 76900 yuan/ton and resistance at 81000 and 81600 yuan/ton. Steel rebar futures contract RB2510 is likely to have weak - side oscillations, with support at 3119 and 3104 yuan/ton and resistance at 3148 and 3169 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2510 is likely to have weak - side oscillations, with support at 3361 and 3349 yuan/ton and resistance at 3406 and 3423 yuan/ton. Iron ore futures contract I2601 is likely to have weak - side oscillations and test support at 777 and 771 yuan/ton, with resistance at 789 and 795 yuan/ton. Coking coal futures contract JM2601 is likely to have wide - range oscillations, with resistance at 1227 and 1251 yuan/ton and support at 1203 and 1164 yuan/ton. Glass futures contract FG601 is likely to have weak - side oscillations and test support at 1167 and 1156 yuan/ton, with resistance at 1191 and 1206 yuan/ton. Soda ash futures contract SA601 is likely to have weak - side oscillations and test support at 1318 and 1300 yuan/ton, with resistance at 1347 and 1365 yuan/ton. Crude oil futures contract SC2510 is likely to have strong - side oscillations and attack resistance at 499 and 504 yuan/barrel, with support at 494 and 491 yuan/barrel. PVC futures contract V2601 is likely to have weak - side oscillations and test support at 5000 and 4984 yuan/ton, with resistance at 5077 and 5089 yuan/ton. Soybean meal futures contract M2601 is likely to have weak - side oscillations and test support at 3088 and 3081 yuan/ton, with resistance at 3122 and 3135 yuan/ton [3][4][5]. 2. Macro - news and Trading Tips - China has introduced policies in multiple fields, including carbon market construction, financial support for forestry, and customs port opening. Shanghai has launched a series of real - estate policies. The US has made a series of political and economic decisions, such as personnel changes, trade tariff adjustments, and the inclusion of certain minerals in the key minerals list. Major investment banks have different expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts [8][9][10]. 3. Commodity Futures - related Information - Henan coking enterprises plan to implement production cuts from August 25 to September 3, with an estimated cut of 20 - 35%. On August 25, international precious - metal futures generally closed down, while crude - oil futures rose due to geopolitical conflicts and inventory decline. The RMB exchange rate, the US dollar index, and non - US currency exchange rates also showed certain fluctuations [11][12][13]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - Stock Index Futures: On August 25, the four major stock - index futures contracts showed strong - side oscillations. The 5 - day, 10 - day, 20 - day, 40 - day, 60 - day, and 120 - day moving averages of the main continuous contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed obvious long - position arrangements, with obvious upward trends in the medium - term, medium - short - term, and short - term. It is expected that before the end of August, the main continuous contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM will continue to attack key resistance levels [13][14][15]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On August 25, the ten - year and thirty - year Treasury - bond futures contracts showed strong - side oscillations. The central bank carried out 2884 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations and 6000 billion yuan of MLF operations on that day, with a net investment of 219 billion yuan and 3000 billion yuan respectively. It is expected that on August 26, the ten - year and thirty - year Treasury - bond futures contracts will have wide - range oscillations [39][40][45]. - Precious Metal Futures: On August 25, the gold and silver futures contracts showed strong - side oscillations. It is expected that in August 2025, the main continuous contracts of gold and silver futures will have wide - range oscillations, and on August 26, the main contracts of gold and silver futures will have strong - side and wide - range oscillations respectively [45][52][53]. - Base Metal Futures: On August 25, the copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, and nickel futures contracts showed different degrees of upward oscillations. It is expected that in August 2025, the main continuous contracts of these base - metal futures will have wide - range oscillations, and on August 26, the main contracts will show different trends such as oscillation consolidation, weak - side oscillations, etc. [58][62][70]. - Industrial Product Futures: On August 25, the industrial - silicon, polysilicon, lithium - carbonate, steel - rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron - ore, coking - coal, glass, soda - ash, crude - oil, PVC, and soybean - meal futures contracts showed different trends. It is expected that in August 2025, the main continuous contracts of these industrial - product futures will have wide - range oscillations or strong - side/weak - side oscillations, and on August 26, the main contracts will show corresponding trends [79][83][89].