市场仍处于鸽派氛围，贵?属震荡?强

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals industry is "oscillating on the strong side" [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market remains in a dovish atmosphere after the Jackson Hole meeting, with precious metals oscillating and strengthening. However, the accelerated rise of the domestic equity market and high risk appetite are attracting funds, limiting the upward range of precious metals. With few key economic data this week, the focus is on next week's US labor market data. Before that, the expectation of interest rate cuts may remain positive, and the precious metals market is expected to continue its oscillating and strengthening trend [1][3] - In the medium term, there is optimism about the gold trend, but the strengthening of emerging - market equities may suppress its elasticity. The US labor market is on a downward trend, and the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle is expected to restart in September. Overseas liquidity will likely expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, and potential risks related to the Fed's independence may support the gold trend. However, strong global equity markets, especially in emerging markets, may reduce the attractiveness of the precious metals market. A stagflation - like combination of interest rate cuts and a weakening economy is more beneficial to gold, while a combination of interest rate cuts and recovery will benefit silver more [3] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Key Information - In July, the annualized total number of new home sales in the US was 652,000, higher than the expected 630,000. The month - on - month decrease was 0.6% [2] - US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset believes that a Fed interest - rate cut is appropriate. It will take several months to select a new Fed chair, and Powell is unlikely to regain Trump's favor. Hasset also hopes to establish a sovereign wealth fund, and the government may increase equity stakes in industries other than semiconductors [2] - Moody's warns that 22 US states are on recession alert, with nearly one - third of GDP affected [2] 3.2 Price Logic - The precious metals market is influenced by the dovish atmosphere after the Jackson Hole meeting, but the high - risk appetite in the domestic equity market restricts the rise of precious metals. The market is expected to continue its oscillating and strengthening trend before next week's US labor - market data. In the medium term, there are both positive and negative factors for the gold market, and different economic combinations will affect the performance of gold and silver [3] 3.3 Outlook - The weekly range for spot London gold is expected to be between 3300 and 3500, and for spot London silver, it is expected to be between 36 and 40 [3] 3.4 Index Performance - The precious metals index on August 25, 2025, had a daily increase of 1.19%, a 5 - day increase of 1.06%, a 1 - month increase of 1.01%, and a year - to - date increase of 23.49% [46] - The comprehensive commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all showed increases, with the comprehensive commodity index up 0.87%, the commodity 20 index up 0.97%, and the industrial products index up 1.02% [44]