原料成本支撑，胶价走势偏强

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but gives the following ratings for each variety: - Oils and fats: Oscillating strongly [5] - Protein meal: Oscillating [6] - Corn and starch: Oscillating weakly [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating [8] - Natural rubber: Oscillating strongly [10] - Synthetic rubber: Oscillating strongly [12] - Cotton: Oscillating strongly [13] - Sugar: Oscillating [15] - Pulp: Oscillating [18] - Logs: Oscillating weakly [21] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall macro - environment shows a strong market expectation for the Fed to cut interest rates in September, with the US dollar weakening and the crude oil price oscillating strongly due to the uncertainty of Russia - Ukraine negotiations. Different agricultural products have different price trends and influencing factors. For example, rubber prices are supported by cost and enter the seasonal rising period, while corn prices are under pressure due to supply and demand factors [1][5]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Quotes and Views - Oils and Fats - View: The expected monthly increase in Malaysian palm oil production in August led to an oscillating consolidation of oil prices yesterday. - Logic: US government decisions on bio - diesel exemptions, strong US soybean exports, macro - environment factors (Fed rate - cut expectations, dollar weakness, and oil price trends), and industry - specific factors such as US soybean yield expectations and the situation of Malaysian palm oil production and exports all affect the oil market [5]. - Outlook: In the medium term, there is a high probability of continued strong oscillation [5]. - Protein Meal - View: Point - price orders support the high - level oscillation of the market. - Logic: International factors include US soybean yield estimates, weather conditions, and Brazilian soybean exports; domestic factors involve inventory pressure, supply gaps, and downstream demand [6]. - Outlook: The external market is expected to make up for losses and be stronger than the domestic market. The term structure of Dalian soybean meal futures may shift from carry to back. The spot basis may bottom out and rebound, and the market will move within a range [6]. - Corn and Starch - View: The sentiment is weak, and both the spot and futures markets maintain a weak trend. - Logic: Supply - side factors include increased grain sales in the trading link and new - crop production conditions; demand - side factors involve low profits in downstream industries [7]. - Outlook: In the short term, prices will oscillate weakly; in the long term, there is a low - absorption idea for the far - month contracts [8]. - Live Pigs - View: State reserves purchasing affects sentiment, and the futures market rebounds slightly. - Logic: Supply is abundant in the short, medium, and long terms, but demand may increase with the cooling of the weather. State reserves purchasing affects market sentiment [8]. - Outlook: The market will oscillate. The spot and near - month contracts are under pressure, while the far - month contracts are supported by supply - side capacity - reduction expectations [8]. - Natural Rubber - View: Rubber prices return to an oscillating and strong trend. - Logic: Driven by the overall strength of commodities due to the Fed's rate - cut expectations and weather - related speculation. The short - term fundamentals support the price [10]. - Outlook: In the short term, rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly [10]. - Synthetic Rubber - View: The market oscillates strongly. - Logic: It follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the short - term tight supply of raw material butadiene [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, the butadiene price may rise slightly, and the market will oscillate strongly [12]. - Cotton - View: The quota is announced, and cotton prices increase in volume and rebound. - Logic: Low commercial inventory, limited impact of the import quota on supply, improving downstream demand, and higher expected purchase prices of ginning mills support the price. New - crop production may put pressure on prices [13]. - Outlook: In the short term, the price range is 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [14]. - Sugar - View: Sugar prices oscillate within a range. - Logic: In the international market, Brazilian sugar production is in an upward phase; in the domestic market, the increase in imports affects the price. However, the short - term downward space is limited [15]. - Outlook: In the long term, prices may oscillate weakly; in the short term, they will move within the range of 5,600 - 5,900 yuan/ton [15]. - Pulp - View: There are few changes, and the market moves within a range. - Logic: There are both positive and negative factors in the pulp market, such as the warming of the broad - leaf pulp market and the over - supply of paper products [18]. - Outlook: The futures market will oscillate, and the main 11 - contract is expected to move within the range of 5,100 - 5,500 [18]. - Logs - View: The far - month contracts can be bought at low prices within the range. - Logic: The fundamentals have improved marginally since July, with factors such as increased valuation and reduced supply pressure, but there are also delivery - related pressures [21]. - Outlook: The market will oscillate weakly, and the 11 - contract can be bought at low prices within the range of 790 - 840 [21]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring - The report only lists the names of various varieties such as oils and fats, corn, live pigs, etc., without specific data monitoring content [23][53][73]. 3. Rating Standards - The rating standards include strong, oscillating strongly, oscillating, oscillating weakly, and weakly, with a time cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method provided [170]. 4. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, specialty index (including the commodity 20 index and industrial products index), and sector index (agricultural products index) show different trends. For example, the agricultural products index increased by 0.21% on the day, decreased by 0.56% in the past 5 days, decreased by 0.42% in the past month, and increased by 2.78% since the beginning of the year [172][174].