杭氧股份（002430）：气体利润超预期，看好气价与空分负荷

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2025 met expectations, driven by an unexpected improvement in the gas business's gross margin, which offset the decline in profitability from the equipment business [3] - The gas sales business achieved revenue of 4.59 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 14.1% and a gross margin of 21.2%, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The air separation equipment business reported revenue of 2.32 billion RMB, flat year-on-year, with a gross margin of 20.4%, down 5.0 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The report anticipates a rebound in physical consumption, leading to an increase in gas prices and higher load factors for air separation [3] Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.76 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.6% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 250 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.0% [2] Business Analysis - The gas business's gross margin improvement is attributed to concentrated capacity release in regions with strong demand, successful diversification of gas business, and a continuous increase in direct sales proportion [3] - The air separation equipment business faces margin pressure due to a decline in chemical product prices, with the chemical product price index down 9.7% year-on-year and the Shanghai rebar price down 12.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company is 1.09 billion RMB for 2025, 1.25 billion RMB for 2026, and 1.45 billion RMB for 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 17.8%, 15.0%, and 15.8% respectively [4] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 22x for 2025, 19x for 2026, and 16x for 2027 [4]