融达期货生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The view on the pig market is that it will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to abundant supply; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and seasonally, this difference is expected to continue to strengthen, which will weaken the willingness of small - scale farmers to reduce pig weight and support pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce pig weight or keep it stable, pig prices may oscillate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract to some extent. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On August 25, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 430 lots [2]. - In the short - term, the room for further decline in the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2]. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) reduced its position by 3231 lots today, with a position of about 70,000 lots. The highest price today was 14,015 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,860 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,910 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - to - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatory [3]. - Market bearish logic: slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure; expected continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume; limited support from demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. Bullish logic: farmers have reduced pig weight, which is beneficial for the future; strong resilience of spot prices indicates that supply - demand is not as loose as bears think; although there will be an increase in subsequent slaughter volume, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for live pigs [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic includes the expected increase in pig slaughter volume until December, the stabilizing and rebounding price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs, and the potential impact of farmers' weight - reduction or weight - stability on pig prices and the November contract. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - National average live pig slaughter price on August 25 was 13.72 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.36% from August 22. In Henan, it was 13.71 yuan/kg, down 0.16 yuan/kg or 1.15%; in Sichuan, it was 13.62 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.37% [6]. - For futures prices, the 01 contract was 14,240 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton or 0.67%; the 03 contract was 13,315 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.11%; the 05 contract was 13,770 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 0.22%; the 07 contract was 14,175 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 09 contract was 13,795 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 0.25%; the 11 contract was 13,910 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton or 0.51% [6]. - The main contract basis in Henan was - 200 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton or 185.71% from August 22 [6].